Derek Bodner’s Blog

The second half of the 76ers 2006-2007 season appeared to be a success on the surface. The team that at one point had come within a half game of the worst record in the NBA with a 102-118 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies strung together an impressive post All-Star break resume. They compiled a 9-6 record in March, then followed it up with a 6-3 April. Their 18-12 record after the All-Star break got them to at least be able to talk about the playoffs in April. The continued improvement of Andre Iguodala was a pleasure to watch. And Andre Miller comfortably adapting the Sixers players gave fans reasons to be optimistic about the team’s future going forward. Couple that with 3 of the first 30 picks in the upcoming NBA Draft, and the future looked bright for a team that just months ago had gotten rid of two players with career averages totaling over 48 points per game.

Not so fast. The winning was fools gold, and the future of the team was hurt in the process.

I would be more optimistic if the improved winning percentage more directly correlated to improved play. Just based on strength of schedule, it shouldn’t shock anyone that the Sixers second half record was better than their first half. Besides the the long home stands during the second half of the season (twelve of the previously mentioned 18 post All-Star wins came in the friendly confines of the Wachovia Center), a large majority of the victories came against teams missing star players. Only 7 of the Sixers 18 post All-Star wins came against playoff teams, and only 3 of them (the Jazz, Raptors, and the Pistons) were not missing key players due to injury (and the Pistons were resting starters for the playoffs). The Nets were missing Richard Jefferson, the Suns Shawn Marion and Boris Diaw, the Lakers Lamar Odom, Vladimir Radmanovic and Luke Walton, and the Heat Dwyane Wade. You can take a look at the Rockets or Pistons game as examples of what true contenders did to this Sixers squad.

That’s not to say that the Sixers weren’t playing well. Anytime you string together a series of wins against NBA opponents, decent basketball is being played. But when forecasting for the future, it does not translate into guaranteed success.

The argument can be made the the Sixers’ young players learned to win, and that the experience gained here will help them grow as players. History, however, has shown this cliche to not be always accurate. Michael Jordan failed to lead the bulls to a .500 record until his fourth year in the league, not coincidentally the same time the team acquired some bona fide All-Star talent to surround him with in Scottie Pippen. Michael Jordan’s bulls were 108-138 (.439 winning %) his first 3 seasons in the league. That experience did not ruin his confidence for the rest of his career. He did not develop a losing mentality. He simply needed more talent around him, and when he got that talent, he had a *slight* amount of success going forward.

That’s where the Sixers problem is. Talent. Despite the happy-go-lucky feel of the second half of the season, this Sixers team is woefully short on talent. The Pistons are often used as an argument for the “you don’t need a superstar to win” theory. For a second let’s ignore the fact that the Pistons are the exception to the rule. Let’s forget that every other NBA champion in the last 30 years has had a player who has been an All-NBA first team level talent. The argument still shows how much the Sixers are lacking in the talent department from being a true contender. There is only one player on the Sixers roster (Andre Iguodala) who would even challenge for a starting position on that NBA champion Pistons team (and you can compare the Pistons/Sixers coaches and GM’s if you would like, too). One (1). That just goes to show how hard it is to build a team resembling the Pistons. We’re a long, long way from that.

And that’s where the true shame of this Sixers season comes into play. With the way the NBA is constructed, it’s very hard to trade for the talent that will put you into contention status. The Collective Bargaining Agreement inhibits trades to a degree, especially on capped out teams such as the Sixers. The Sixers salary cap situation is not going to be good in the next few years. In fact, the Sixers are likely to be up against the Luxury Tax limit yet again next year. Using the Mid-Level Exception might not even be an option. The Sixers, as currently constructed, will not have enough cap room to offer more than a Mid-Level Exception 2 years down the road, either.

The draft is where you get the All-NBA talent to build a champion. If you take a look back at past champions, all of them have drafted top-flight talent (The Spurs drafting Tim Duncan, the Lakers Kobe Bryant, The Bulls Michael Jordan, The Rockets Hakeem, the Pistons Isiah, and the Lakers drafting Magic take us back over 20 years, again with only one exception: The 2004 Detroit Pistons). You can take a look at some of the other top teams and the theory holds true. The Mavs got into contention status with the selection of Howard, Harris and most importantly Dirk Nowitzki. The Cavaliers fortunes turned around with the selection of LeBron James. And while the trade for Allen Iverson has helped the Nuggets, they improved 26 wins, from 17 to 43, the year they drafted Carmelo, and nearly won 50 games his second year. San Antonio is the epitome of this example. They were a very good team in the mid-90′s until David Robinson got hurt. While on their way to 20 wins that year, they picked up some tall guy from the Virgin Islands. That losing season, to the best of my knowledge, did not create a losing atmosphere in the clubhouse and they went on to win three championships since. It’s all about seizing an opportunity. And this year the Sixers had an opportunity.

Clearly there are years where having a top pick is not a guarantee to turning around your franchise. Andrew Bogut has yet to turn around the Milwaukee Bucks, and it’s likely he never will. Nobody from the 2001 draft has taken a team to the promised land. The 2000 draft class would be a catastrophic disaster for a team needing help to turn around a franchise. But this is not any of those drafts. Greg Oden is as good of a 19 year old big-man prospect as we’ve seen in the last decade. Compare his freshman stats (15.7 points, 9.6 rebounds, 3.3 blocks, 61.6% from the floor in 29 minutes per game) to that of a 19 year old Tim Duncan at Wake Forest (9.8 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 3.8 bpg in 30.2 minutes per game), and you can see why scout’s are drooling over the giant. While there’s certainly no degree of certainty that he will turn out the way Duncan did (and if I had to guess, he won’t be of that level), but you can say with a reasonably high level of probability that he will be a top 3 center at one point during his career. Combine that with the incredible season Kevin Durant had, and you have two players who have the possibility to turn a franchise around. Add in a few more big men (Horford and Brandon Wright) who could be All-Stars one day, and for a team that desperately needed an inside game, this was the year to have it.

Sure, the NBA draft is a lottery, and having the worst record does not guarantee you the first pick. Likewise, the Sixers winning does not guarantee they won’t move up in the draft. And having a top pick does not guarantee getting a player that will turn your team around. However, let’s keep in mind the following:
- Since the NBA went to the current lottery format in 1994, only 5 times has a team with the 6th-14th worst record moved up in the draft.
- Of players drafted between 1994 and 2003 (guys drafted 2004-2006 have yet to truly hit their prime), 7 of the 10 #1 picks have made an All-Star appearance. 27 of the 50 players selected between 1-5 have made an All-Star appearance. 11 out of 50 players selected between 6-10 have made an All-Star apperance. 1 player selected between 11-14 has made an All-Star appearance (Kobe Bryant)
- Since 1994, Top 5 picks have produced a total of 100 All-Star selections. Picks 6-14 combined have produced 44 All-STar Selections

I’m not suggesting that the team should have tanked. I would never, ever condone asking players to lose games on purpose. And players who willingly lose games do not have a place on my team. But the focus of the Sixers leadership was not on how can they improve this team best for the long haul. They could not afford that luxury. Both Billy King and Maurice Cheeks needed to think on the short term to save their jobs, and everything done after that point was for instant gratification, to improve the team immediately to “show that the team is headed in the right direction”.

Every move made after the Iverson trade was done to benefit the team in the short term, including the assets acquired in the Iverson trade. Despite getting shorter contracts, the Sixers will be pressed up against the luxury tax this offseason. In the offseason of 2008, when Webber’s contract expires, the Sixers as presently constructed will not have much more than the mid-level exception available due to the size of Andre Miller’s contract. The trade got the Sixers little cap room, late first round draft picks, and two aging veterans. Andre Miller’s a very nice player, but he has also played a lot of minutes in his career, and there’s no guarantee he will be a top-15 point guard when his contracts expires. Joe Smith is unlikely to be brought back next year, as doing so will may put the Sixers into luxury tax territory. The management duo then proceeded to retain Miller at the deadline, and played Andre Iguodala 42.2 minutes per game in February, 41.1 minutes per game in March, and 39.8 minutes per game in April. This is an even more serious folly considering Andre Iguodala had a very real back injury, an injury that can only get worse with the stress placed on it by NBA basketball.

To that end, both Billy King and Maurice Cheeks have likely saved their jobs, for a season at least. But in doing so, they have likely cost the Sixers an opportunity of building the foundation of a true contender. Barring some draft day luck, this team threatens to remain in the 35-40 win purgatory that is incredibly difficult to get out of. Never good enough to get a franchise player in the draft, restricted by trades and lacking cap space, ask Boston, Seattle, Golden State, and the Knicks how difficult it can be to get back to prominence.

The experience gained by winning 35 games instead of 30 this year will likely not be a meaningful asset to this team 5 years down the road. However, the loss of the chance at a franchise player very well could. While nobody should have asked for the players to purposefully lose games, the post All-Star Break winning has hurt this team going forward. At one point in the year the Sixers had the second worst record in the league, and the Nuggets were within a game of the lottery. The events since that point have been a tremendous blow to the future of the Sixers.