Derek Bodner’s Blog

Earlier this week Marcus Camby was awarded the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year award, obtaining 70 first place votes, over three times as many as the runner up, and over four times as many as San Antonio’s Tim Duncan. The basis for this large margin, however, escapes me.

It could not have been determined based on Camby’s man-man defense, as Tim Duncan clearly bests him in this regard. You could compare their opponents PER (13.9 for Duncan at C, 17.7 for Camby), but the edge clearly goes to Duncan. You could compare their opponents points per 48 minutes ratio (16.2 for Duncan, 18.1 for Camby), but Duncan wins that decisively as well. Their opponents eFG% sings the same tune, as Duncan wins that (47.4% for Duncan, as compared to 50.7% for Camby).

Man-to-man defense has never been where Camby truly shined, however. His major benefit has always been as a team defender, and this year was no exception. He averaged a stunning 3.3 blocks per game to go along with 1.2 steals per game. Surely, that proves his worth right there.

When you get past the flashy stats they do not necessarily translate to an impact on team defense. When a great team defender is off the floor, certainly one who is defensive player of the year material, one would expect the team to struggle defensively. However, the Nuggets did not. Both the opponents points per 100 possessions (107.8 while Camby was on the court vs. 105.5 when he was not) and the opponents eFG% (50.1% while he was on the court vs 49.6% while he was off) indicate that the team did not collapse defensively when Camby was not on the court. The same could not be said for Tim Duncan. Both the opponents points per 100 possessions (99.2 while he was on the court, 105.8 while he was off) and the opponents eFG% (46.3 while he was on the court, 49.1 while he was not) are substantially in his favor.

Surely, those stats are not 100% conclusive in their support of the value to a team a person is. Their backups could have been going against less caliber players, causing the numbers to be skewed. In this case you would expect the defense to get worse in the 12 games Camby missed entirely as the person replacing him was then going against the opponents starters. The Nuggets held a respectable 6-6 in games Camby missed, with their opponents averaging only 102 points per game. The Nuggets opponents averaged 104 ppg with Camby in the lineup. While the Nuggets play at a fast pace, their opponents actually scored less efficiently when Camby was out of the lineup, averaging 1.17 points per shot as compared to 1.20 on the year.

I suppose you could look past all that if Camby was anchoring a top-flight defensive team vs Duncan’s mediocre Spurs, but it becomes particularly egregious when played out the other way. Outside of all the statistical evidence that Duncan not only did more against the man he was guarding, but also more for the team, Duncan’s team was a far better defensive team. In terms of opponents PPG (San Antonio was best in the league at 90.1 ppg, Denver 5th worst at 103.7), efficiency (San Antonio’s opponents shot 44.3%, Denver’s 46%), San Antonio was clearly better. When pace is equalized, San Antonio was still clearly better. In Defensive Efficiency (essentially points per 100 possessions), San Antonio was second in the league at 101.5, whereas Denver came in a respectable 9th place at 107.0. However, when taken into account the differential between 101.5 and 107, the Spurs were as far ahead of the 9th place Nuggets (5.5 points per 100 possessions) as the Nuggets were the 28th place Wizards. The Nuggets were not a bad defensive team. They were, however, an average defensive team.

My point is not that Camby is a bad defensive player. Nearly any team in the league would be happy to have a (healthy) Marcus Camby. That being said, Camby was not a better defender than Tim Duncan, and did not have more of an impact on team defense than the San Antonio center. In a year where nobody clearly distanced themselves, it would have been nice to see Duncan win his first NBA Defensive Player of the Year award, as he has clearly earned it. Instead they went for flash and stats over substance and impact, and that’s a shame.