Derek Bodner’s Blog

With the draft just over 24 hours away, the only thing we can expect is to be surprised. Rumors abound, both with the trading of stars and the drafting of draft picks. There likely isn’t going to be much wrapped up on the trade front before tomorrow evening so now is a time to take a look at what I believe the Sixers should (and shouldn’t) do.

The most common mistake is reaching for a player to fill a positional need, or reaching for a big man because he’s, well….big. You can search back in history to find a litany of busts taken because they’re 7′ tall, from Shawn Bradley to Michael Olowokandi and so on. Big men are far more intriguing and hence get overhyped at this time of the year.

However, another trap to fall into is going squarely with the best player available. While acquiring talent is always encouraged, if you run a system or have stars already in place that will limit the effectiveness of your newly acquired talent, it may be best to go a different way.

The perfect example of both of these situations is the Toronto Raptors. In 2004 they needed a big man to pair with emerging star Chris Bosh. With the goal of moving Bosh to his more natural forward position they reached to get a center they hoped could play next to him. The end result was Rafael Araujo, who ended his two year run in Toronto averaging 2.8 points per game. They passed on Iguodala (18 points per game, 5.7 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game in his 3rd year) and Al Jefferson (16 points and 11 rebounds per game) in the process.

The very next year the Raptors drafted a combo forward in Charlie Villanueva who was clearly the best talent left on the board, irrespective of whether or not he could co-exist with Bosh. After one year with Toronto Villanueva was traded for Ford, which while a comparable talent, fit in much better with the Toronto team. The end result was a vast improvement and a trip to the NBA playoffs.

So, if drafting neither the best player available nor on positional need is the right move, what is? Some sort of a tiered system. One in which you group players with other players who have relatively equal levels of potential, then use position as a determining factor. There wasn’t a scout who would have put Rafael Araujo in the same tier as Iguodala, Jefferson or Biedrins.

What current players fall into these categories for the 76ers?
Category 1, the players drafted based on position:
The players most likely to fall into this category are Joakim Noah and Tiago Splitter. If the Sixers go into this drafting thinking they need a PF or C then there is a very likely chance they could end up reaching. Neither Noah or Splitter have star potential, however both could be drafted based on team needs higher than players who do. In my opinion this would likely end up a mistake (although a mistake at 21, which is presumably where one would look to draft Splitter, is more tolerable). Spencer Hawes could fit into this category. However if he’s taken I believe it has more to do with his unique skillset than his position, and if he turns out to be a bust would be a reach due to potential rather than height.

Category 2, the players who may not be as effective with the current team construct:
The most likely candidates to disappoint in this regard are Jeff Green and Julian Wright. While both players may be good NBA prospects, their games (barring expanding their skillsets) have the potential to clash with Andre Iguodala’s. In the case of Julian Wright, one would question whether there would be enough shooting between Andre Miller, Andre Iguodala and Wright to be effective as a starting lineup. With Jeff Green, I believe both he and Iguodala are best with the ball in their hands, creating for both themselves and others. Having the two of them play next to each other might limit one of their effectiveness. Drafting one of these players, while letting similarly talented players such as Brandon Wright, Spencer Hawes or Stuckey go by, all of whom may be better fits, could turn out to be a mistake down the road.

From the sounds of it, the Sixers appear to be very interested in trading up, with rumors of the 3, 5, 6, and 8 picks as targets. If the Sixers can get up to the 5 or 6 range, my list would include Al Horford, Mike Conley Jr, Brandon Wright, and Yi Jianlian. Al Horford is the most well-rounded big after Oden, and also fills a very big need for the Sixers. Mike Conley I believe is far and away the best point guard prospect in the draft. His combination of court vision, speed, and penetration ability makes him a very good prospect. While point guard is not an immediate need for the Sixers, it is enough of a future need not to pass on a prospect of this caliber. While Brandon Wright has the game of a PF and the body of a SF, at 19 years of age and his current skillset there’s simply too much potential to pass up at this point. And Yi might be the biggest enigma of the draft, but is a risk worth taking if the other 3 prospects are off the board.

At 8 the next two I’d look at would be Spencer Hawes and Jeff Green, who while I conceded above may not be the best fit, after this I also believe he’s a tier above the rest of the draftees. Spencer Hawes has the type of low post game that is a very rare commodity in today’s NBA, and while there are concerns about his rebounding, the rest of the package is good enough that you take a chance on that. Not because he’s tall, but because he’s tall and skilled.

If they remain at 12, I would focus on any of the remaining plus Stuckey, Crittenton, and Nick Young. Stuckey could be the player with the most star potential not drafted in the top 10. Not only is he a bona fide scorer, but his court vision and defense are both pluses. He measured in at just about 6’5″ at the predraft camp, and should be able to play both guard positions effectively. Crittenton is a player who, at 6’5″ just oozes with potential, although there is the chance he cannot adapt to the NBA pg position. Nick Young is a player who might fit this team perfectly, and thus be more valuable to the Sixers than his talent level (which is already high) might indicate. His midrange game and athleticism fit in very well with Andre Iguodala’s penetration and passing game. Thaddeus Young is another player who could be a good fit in the Sixers lineup, as well as have a high ceiling, however it appears he may be an option at 21 as he seems to be falling down the draft board.

Overall, there’s enough talent in this draft that the Sixers should be able to find a player who is both extremely talented as well as a good fit.