Derek Bodner’s Blog

The big news so far during this NBA offseason has been the trade by the Celtics to acquire Kevin Garnett, in what turned out to be a 7-for-1 deal (when draft picks are included). I think this was a tremendous development for the Celtics, and does in fact put them in contention, not only for a chance to go to the finals, but a chance to win within the next few years.

Critics of the trade have mainly argued four things. 1) Trading 5 current players for Garnett leaves the Celtics with little depth. 2) There is only one basketball on the court, and satisfying three former #1 options is going to be impossible. 3) All three of the “big 3″ are getting up there in age, and could begin to decline in productivity/health. 4) The salary of Garnett/Pierce/Allen will cripple the Celtics front office moves, and thus make problem #1 (depth) even harder to overcome.

I can understand the concern for #1 and #4 slightly (although not nearly to the degree played out by the mass media), and think #2 and #3 are unfounded.

The Celtics have lost quite a bit of depth, but that’s not to say they have no talent outside of Allen, Pierce and Garnett. Rajon Rondo is someone who displayed a decent amount of individual talent in his rookie year (10.6 points per game, 5.4 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 2.4 steals as a starter). He’s also one of the players who is a perfect fit on the team, surrounded by those players. Rondo’s strengths were penetration, passing, and defense, with a weakness on his outside shot. Playing next to shooters like Ray Allen and Paul Pierce, and a high post big man like Kevin Garnett makes Rondo’s strengths necessary, and covers up his weaknesses. He could be one of the most improved players this year, and an A+ defender at his position. Tony Allen is another good defender who I think fits in much better with the additions of Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett than he did last year.

There’s little proven talent off the bench in the forward/center department (although I guess you could consider Scalabrine and Olowokandi to be proven, although not talent), and this is a definite area of concern. They are very much reliant on Glen Davis and Leon Powe, both of whom I think have a future in this league, but are currently lacking any real experience. This isn’t so much a concern when Garnett’s healthy, but if there’s an injury to Pierce or Garnett, things could get ugly. Regardless, an injury to any of Allen, Pierce or Garnett and the Celtics should be able to manage to sneak into the playoffs, as long as all three of them are healthy for the playoffs, it’s not a huge concern.

This concern ties in with the concern that of the salaries of Garnett/Pierce/Allen hampering the ability for the Celtics to add additional pieces to the puzzle to complement the big three. Sure, in future years the Celtics will not have the cap space to be major players in free agency. They also don’t have any more expiring contracts this year to facilitate trades, and could likely not even have the Mid-Level Exception available to them next year, unless they are willing to go into luxury tax territory. However, the key here is whether or not Rondo/Perkins can develop into good enough role players to be legitimate starters. If they can (and I think Rondo is a virtual lock to be), then finding bench players who can complement Pierce, Allen and Garnett is infinitely easier than finding three players of that caliber that fit well together, and should be able to do so relatively cheaply.

I wouldn’t be too concerned with the age of Garnett and Allen. Sure, Allen missed some time last year, and his efficiency dipped a little bit from his earlier years. This has been pointed to as a sign that he’s wearing down. While the injury is a legitimate concern (although I would wait to see a consistent pattern of injury before I attribute it to breaking down), the percentages and perceived “decrease” in play are off base. Ray Allen scored a career high in points per game last year. It is not unreasonable to expect one’s efficiency to go down (and it only went down slightly in this case) when they are asked to shoulder more and more of the load. If Garnett and Pierce’s styles of play fit well with Allen (and I believe they do), you should see Allen score as efficiently as ever.

Furthermore, if you take a look at Allen and Garnett’s PER’s and TS%, they are right on par with their career averages. People are assuming that they will slow down since they are on the wrong side of 30, however I believe one should actually show signs of breaking down before they are thrown to the curb. Defense is typically one of the first indications a player is breaking down physically. Garnett played some of the best defense of his career last year.

Finally, we get to the question of whether or not this makes basketball sense. Whether or not the player’s can co-exist. This is where the acquisition makes the most sense. You have one of the best three-point shooters in the history of the game, and he’s surrounded by a slasher and a great passing big man. You have a slasher, who will have the lane opened up by a sniper, and a big man who players in the high post. Then you have a guy like Garnett, who if there’s ever been a critique on him, it’s that he can’t take over a game in crunch time, and you pair him with a shooter with ice in his veins, and a player in Pierce who is money in the fourth quarter. Garnett’s the type of player who can score 14 points, and absolutely dominate a game with his rebounding, defense (both individual and team), and passing. If there’s a superstar that can be a superstar even without a lot of touches, it’s Garnett.

Sure, the Celtics may not have a bright future in 3-4 years when Allen/Garnett have legitimately lost effectiveness. But daggonit, the object of the sport is to win, and the Celtics have put themselves in position to do so. I’m sick of the constant overevaluation of young guys abilities, placing them into “untouchable” categories that they don’t belong in. I’m sick of always planning for next year. If you have a chance to do now what you hope to do five years from now, you take that chance. You owe it to your fans, and your players. I applaud the Celtics for seizing an opportunity, even if it doesn’t end up working out. And as much as I hate the Celtics, with the Sixers being the wreck that they are, I will be excited to see how their season(s) together unfold, and may even find myself secretly developing a rooting interest for them, as I have always thought KG deserved that shot.