Derek Bodner’s Blog

Originally posted at RealGM.com

In a move surely to send shivers down the spines of the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs, the Philadelphia Phillies acquired starting pitcher Joe Blanton from the Oakland Athletics for second baseman Adrian Cardenas, outfielder Matt Spencer and pitcher Josh Outman. With the acquisition, the Phillies now have two pitchers in their system who were opening day starters this year.

Of course, that may not be something to hang your hat on, as Myers and Blanton have an ERA of over 8.0 in their last 8 combined starts since June 15th.

Looking at the trade optimistically, Blanton had a phenomenal rookie year, and being only 27 you hope he can regain that form. He did appear to have a bounceback year last year, and was solid for the first two months this year before getting knocked around in June and July. He’s a ground ball pitcher, ever so important in Citizens Bank Park, who doesn’t give up a lot of home runs, and doesn’t walk a lot of batters.

Maybe, just maybe, you can overlook his terrible second half to the season last year. Maybe you can overlook the fact that he’s 11-18 in his last 35 starts, with a 4.94 ERA and an opponents batting average of nearly .300. Maybe he was on the cusp of turning it around.

But it’s not likely.

The Oakland Coliseum (now dubbed McAfee Coliseum) has been a haven for pitchers for quite some time. From Barry Zito to Mark Mulder, the number of pitchers who have declined markedly after leaving the Athletics is numerous. The Coliseum has historically been beneficial to pitchers, and Joe Blanton is no exception.

Because not all baseball parks are created equal, looking at a pitchers road statistics is a decent indicator of their chances of success when being acquired in a trade. The ineffectiveness of Blanton when away from the Coliseum is startling. During the last 3 seasons, Blanton has not had a road ERA of less than 5.11, and opponents are batting over .300 against him during that span. During his “bounce back” year in 2007, Blanton compiled a 5.11 ERA with opponents hitting .304 against him. And that was the year Phillies fans were clinging to as hope.

And this is a guy you traded one of your top 3 minor league prospects for?

Adding another question mark in a pitching staff filled with question marks. The Phillies chance of success this season still rests largely on the offenses ability to outhit the opposition, with little impact coming from this acquisition.

Make no mistake about it, Adrian Cardenas is one of the Phillies top prospects. At only 20 years old, and at a position where offensive production is increasingly valuable, Cardenas has batted .309 with a .818 OPS. By comparison, at the same level of minor league baseball, and at 22 years of age, Chase Utley batted .257 with a .734 OPS, and was a defensive liability.

That’s not to say that Cardenas is a better prospect than Utley, or that he is a sure thing to improve the way Utley has since that time. The odds of both are slim. And sure, there was the question mark of where Cardenas fit in the organization long term should he develop.

But he was a legitimate prospect, with high upside. Outside of Lou Marson and Carlos Carrasco, Cardenas had more worth than any prospect in the Phillies farm system.

Earlier this season, the Phillies remarked about how they didn’t have the propects to pursue the top of the rotation starters. That may very well be true. But when you take a step back and look at it, it’s trades like this that are one of the primary reasons the Phillies don’t have the trading chips down in the minors to make such deals, dealing away your top prospects for middling (at best) pitching, because of the pressure felt to make a move.

This trade has the rare distinction of having a low probability of working out now, with the potential to blow up in their faces should Cardenas continue to improve, all the while hurting the team’s future maneuverability by depleting an already shallow farm system.

“The second you say you have to do something, you’re screwed. Because you are going to make a bad deal. You can always recover from the player you didn’t sign. You may never recover from the player you signed at the wrong price.”

Unfortunately, that’s a quote from the other General Manager involved on the Blanton trade. It fits this trade to a T.