Derek Bodner’s Blog

Originally posted at RealGM.com.

After watching C.C. Sabathia seemingly will his team to the playoffs with four consecutive starts on 3 days rest, it becomes tempting to ask a pitcher of Cole Hamels’ caliber to work on short rest during the World Series. After watching Joe Blanton (3 ER and 7 hits in only 5 innings in game 4 against the Dodgers) and Jamie Moyer (8 ER in 5.1 IP during the first two rounds of the playoffs) struggle, the thought of them pitching a decisive game 7 is cause for concern.

But trying to squeeze getting 3 starts from Cole Hamels?

That’s entering uncharted territory.

It’s no revelation that pitchers starting on 3 days rest with any sort of regularity is long gone. The number of times a starting pitcher was going on 3 days rest went from over 1,000 40 years ago to 844 in 1978, 221 times in 1988, and only 50 times in 1998.

That being said, this year saw a bit of a renaissance in that regard. Not that it happened all that frequently (only 40 starts), but those pitchers combined for a 17-10 record with a 3.64 earned run average, highlighted by Sabathia’s 3 starts at the end of the year, including his complete game, in which he allowed 1 un-earned run.

But now? In this spot? Having not done it at all this season? With no proven track record?

In the last 10 postseasons, 50 starts have been made on 3 days rest. Those teams are a combined 11-39 in those games started on short rest.

Even more worrisome, no pitcher has started 3 games of a seven game series in the last 15 years. There have been various pitchers who have started two of the first five games of a series who have come back in relief in game 7 of a series, most recently Pedro Martinez in the 2004 ALCS. Getting a 3rd start out of a starter would be unheard of in modern baseball.

(For the record, Pedro gave up 4 earned runs in only 6 innings pitched in his second start in the aforementioned 2004 ALCS, and gave up 2 earned runs in relief in game 7. Not the outcome fans would be looking for).

As tempting as it is to try to avoid a game 7 featuring Joe Blanton and Jamie Moyer, it’s much more imperative to try to increase the chances that Cole Hamels will give you two quality starts. The only way he should see a start on 3 days rest is if game 4 is an elimination game. In other words, it should be by circumstance, not design.

= What about the DH? =
The Designated Hitter situation would seem obvious, as the Phillies have a guy with a .301 batting average sitting on the bench without a true position in the field. But, with Gregg Dobbs only getting 9 total at bats all year against left handed pitchers, it’s doubtful Charlie Manuel is going to ask him to start hitting left handed pitching now.

The logical choice in that situation is Chris Coste, with a career .316 batting average and .864 OPS against left handed pitchers. Problem solved.

Not so fast.

If Manuel uses the same roster he did in the NLCS, Coste is the only backup catcher. If he’s batting DH, and Ruiz goes down, the only way the DH can move to become a positional player is if the Phillies forfeit the DH and allow the pitcher to bat in Ruiz’s spot.

It’s conceivable Eric Bruntlett, or even worse, So Taguchi, could be asked to play left field against left handed pitching, with Pat Burrell as the DH. This would put the Phillies at a distinct disadvantage, and remove the benefit the Phillies could gain by having another productive bat in the lineup. The decision on whether to have Bruntlett’s .217 batting average and .297 slugging percentage or Taguchi’s .220 batting average and .297 slugging percentage? Can we just have Cole Hamels DH?

The best option would be to have Lou Marson replace So Taguchi on the roster, allowing Chris Coste to DH, all the while keeping Marson available as the emergency catcher in the unlikely event that Ruiz should suffer an injury.

I know this will remove Charlie’s favorite defensive sub (who is a mediocre defender), pinch runner (who isn’t very fast), and pinch hitter (whose last pinch hit came in July), but this is a tradeoff that has to be made.

= Home Field Advantage Throughout =
12,489. That’s the number of fans in attendance on September 22nd at Tropicana Field. The Rays were 30 games above .500 heading into the game.

At one point this year, the Rays drew less than 10,000 people in 3 consecutive home games, and only drew 1.8 million in attendance on the year. By contrast, the Phillies only had 9 games with less than 30,000 fans in attendance since July 1st, drawing 3.4 million fans for the year.

The dawn of internet auctions and online ticket merchants have made traveling more of a possibility. With Tickets going at under $200 for a seat in Tampa, whereas the cheapest price for a ticket in Philadelphia is in the $500 range, expect to see a much stronger contingent of Phillies fans in Tampa than the other way around.