Derek Bodner’s Blog

Originally posted at RealGM.com.

With 20 games left to go in the regular season, it has become painfully obvious what the Sixers are. And, more importantly, what they are not.

A team just good enough to hold your interest, but not good enough to really make you believe. A team good enough to play well in spurts, but not good enough to play well consistently. Fun to watch when the running game is going, hard to watch when a playoff quality team who takes care of the basketball and plays tough half-court defense comes to town.

They are a .500 team. Mediocre by any definition of the word. Without one strength (outside of the fast break) that you can hang your hat on and count on being in your favor every night. Not a great offensive team, not a superb defensive team, and a sub-par rebounding team.

Sure, there can be excuses. Prized free agent Elton Brand not being a contributor the past few months hasn’t helped, although with the way some pundits reacted at the time of his injury you would think his absence would have jump-started the team into greatness. Regardless, this is the team that you’ll see in the playoffs and, minus Thaddeus Young’s game maturing years in a matter of days, does anyone think a playoff series win is all that probable?

As such, it becomes incumbent on the team to find out one critical piece of information. A decision that, with the possible exception of Andre Miller’s future, is as important as any they’ll face. Coming into the year Ed Stefanski pushed the wing combo of Andre Iguodala at shooting guard and Thaddeus Young at small forward, an “experiment” abandoned 21 games into the season.

If the Sixers determine Andre Iguodala is incapable of playing the shooting guard position, then what becomes of Thaddeus Young? The potential possibilities seem limited, and bad for Sixers fans:

- Come off the bench, behind Iguodala at the small foward and Brand at the power forward.

- Start Thad at small forward, with Iguodala moving to the shooting guard position.

- Be included in a deal for a better fit at shooting guard.

He can not, and should not, play the power forward position full time, and with Elton Brand returning next year (as well as reserve Jason Smith), minutes there will be sparse. And Young is simply too talented, with too much upside to keep pinned to the bench. This is a kid who is showing his mettle playing 35+ minutes per game on a team making a playoff push, which at times makes you forget he’ll still be only 20 years old at the end of the season.

A trade? Any such move would make me highly nervous. A player that has shown this much, at such a young age, with the physical tools to improve tremendously, and a good work ethic is not something you just let go. Unless it’s a sure thing, something that will make you contenders now, Sixers fans better not watch Young blossom into an all-star from afar.

So, that leaves one outcome that Sixers fans have to hope for, and that’s that Iguodala and Young can co-exist. The Sixers have quite a bit invested in that scenario, both from a financial perspective (Iguodala’s $80 million contract) and from a talent perspective. If next year Thaddeus Young is wasting away on the bench while Willie Green is starting, the Sixers have taken a serious step back in terms of talent.

This is the time, right now with 20 games left, to give Iguodala and Young a chance. Not only does it give yourself a larger sample size to create a more informed opinion on the duo, but it may give you the best chance of winning, too.

Iguodala’s struggles to begin the season are well documented. He averaged a dreadful 13.3 points per game in November, shooting 40.7% from the field. A far cry from his averages of 19.9 points per game at 45.6% shooting last year. However, this isn’t entirely uncommon for Iguodala, who has historically been a slow starter. Last year he averaged 17.4 points per game in November on only 41.4% shooting, 28.6% from 3, and committed a dismal 4.1 turnovers per game. He went on to average 20.8 points per game on 47.2% field goal shooting, 35.9% from 3, while turning the ball over only 2 times per game after the all-star break.

He did begin to show signs of coming out of his slump before Willie Green replaced Young in the starting lineup, while Iguodala was still primarily playing the shooting guard position. The last 4 games of the original starting lineup saw Iguodala average 18.3 points per game, 8.25 rebounds per game, and 4.5 assists on 49.2% from the field.

The argument has been made that Iguodala isn’t a two, and can’t play shooting guard in the NBA. I don’t necessarily believe that. I believe in roles and pairing of skills more than I differentiate between positions. More or less, the guys defending Iguodala are going to be nearly the same whether he’s playing the 2 of the 3. The key is whether he fits in with the skill-sets of the teammates he has on the court. He can be successful as a shooting guard between shooters like Calderon and Rashard Lewis, or he could be successful as a small forward next to Ray Allen. The key is skill-sets, not position.

According to 82games.com, Iguodala has had a higher PER at shooting guard in three of his first 4 years in the league (15.4 vs 12.2 in his rookie year, followed by 17.1 vs 14.8 his second and 20.9 vs 18.3 his third). His minutes during those 3 years were fairly evenly split between the two positions. What was different then that isn’t now? When he was playing shooting guard in the past he was playing next to Kyle Korver at small forward. A very different skill-set than anyone currently in the Sixers regular rotation.

So, can Thaddeus Young be a good enough shooter to make the pairing work? I’m not sure he is now, and he might not even be next year. But he’s on his way. After making only 6 three pointers on 31.6% shooting last year Young has made 50 so far this year at a 34.2% clip. His efficiency has gone up as the year has gone on, making 36% or better in both January and February, and 36.8% since the break. To me, the question is when Thaddeus Young gains consistency from the outside, not if.

Similarly, if the Sixers had a point guard with more three point range, how much would that help mask Iguodala’s shooting deficiencies? The question is as much how Andre Miller, Iguodala and Young fit together as it is how Iguodala and Young match up. With Andre Miller not under contract beyond this year, it becomes hard to predict the future.

Finally, there needs to be more proof that Iguodala at the shooting guard position didn’t work. Sure, Iguodala struggled, but the Miller-Iguodala-Young-Brand-Dalembert lineup had a very positive +/- rating, and overall won their shifts. The unit was one of the best defensive units the Sixers had. How much defensive potential does an Iguodala-Young-Brand trio have? How much overall potential does that trio have if Young continues his ascension?

Are we really ready to abandon that potential wing pair (and, in turn, potentially abandon a 20-year-old talent) with a very small sample size, based primarily on the assumption that Iguodala can’t play shooting guard, while ignoring the fact that it very well could have just been a historically slow starter starting the season slow, and ignoring the overall positive output that lineup had?

When the Sixers began winning after changing the lineup to put Thaddeus Young at the power forward spot, it created a resistance to change. The Sixers poor post all-star break has been the lubricant needed for change. It’s time to go back to the original plan, the Sixers future depends on the duo of Iguodala and Young working. It might even help you win now.