Whenever a legitimate World Series team acquires one of the top three pitchers in the game, while giving up nothing that contributed to their World Series runs the previous two years, the baseball world tunes in.

When two former CY Young winners exchange hands it becomes a blockbuster.

Three teams at three different levels of of contention with three different agendas. Which one came out the best?

The Phillies intention in acquiring Roy Halladay is clear. Having won the NL pennant two years running and with a core presently in their prime acquiring perhaps the top right-handed pitcher in the game is of obvious interest. Roy Halladay has been the apple in Ruben Amaro Jr’s eye for a while, including at the trading deadline last year. The fact that they can acquire a pitcher of his caliber and lock him up for four years (his one remaining year with a three-year extension, with a vesting option on a 4th year) at an arguably below market value contract is an opportunity that doesn’t present itself every day.

Halladay has a no trade clause, and being legitimate contenders and having their Spring Training facility within virtual walking distance of his home put the Phillies on his short list. Even after the Cliff Lee trade last year, the Phillies have the talent accumulated in the minor leagues, and the potential fit was obvious.

But why, essentially, in place of Cliff Lee?

Two main reasons:

- 2009 payroll. The Phillies payroll has jumped from just over $100 million on opening day 2008 to nearly $140 million to end 2009. Even with 42 consecutive sellouts and Phillies merchandise littering the streets of Philadelphia, there is a limit. It appears they’ve reached that limit. With this trade the Blue Jays are sending $6 million in cash, which along with the outbound Cliff Lee’s salary covers Roy Halladay’s 2009 salary almost completely.

- Restocking the farm system. With the combined Lee and Halladay trade the Phillies would have sent out seven of their top 10 prospects from the 2009 Baseball America list in Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson to Cleveland and Michael Taylor, Kyle Drabek and Travis D’Arnaud in the Halladay trade. Those prospects would have netted the Phillies a lot of talent in Lee, Ben Francisco and Halladay, but also a lot of age (those three would have been 31, 28 and 33 by June of the 2010 season). That would have been a hefty price, both in the financial sense and in talent.

When rumors came out that the Phillies were leading the way in Halladay sweepstakes Philadelphia went abuzz in a frenzy, envisioning Halladay, Lee and Hamels forming potentially the best starting rotation in Phillies history. That may have set unrealistic expectations. Because of that, enthusiasm for this trade is now somewhat tempered. Acquiring Halladay while retaining Lee might have been greedy, but had it not been for some previous mistakes it may have been doable, at least from a financial sense. Lee at his $9 million salary for next year is a bargain, and the fact that he had to be moved to accommodate Halladay’s salary addition is disappointing.

The mistake last offseason of re-signing Jamie Moyer to a two-year deal is looming ever large, and may be the reason Lee had to be dealt. Even with that mistake, had the Phillies come to terms on a Halladay trade earlier in the offseason they could have not tendered Joe Blanton, who is likely to get a contract in the $7 million range. The dream could have been a reality.

Shoulda-woulda-coulda’s aside, once it became obvious that Lee and Halladay were an either/or situation, the choice became obvious. Besides the fact that Halladay is a better pitcher, and has been consistently excellent for a longer time than Lee, he’s also agreeable to a three-year (with a vested option on a 4th) contract extension at a below market value. Lee, on the other hand, is intent on allowing the free agent market to determine his worth, which meant the Phillies stood the very real chance of having him leave for only the compensatory draft picks a Type A free agency (as Lee most assuredly will be) would garner. Four years of Halladay is worth significantly more than one of Lee. Making this trade will improve the Phillies in 2010 marginally, and drastically for the following three years.

That’s not to say this isn’t without risk. It is, and fairly significantly in that. Unlike the Lee trade at the 2009 trade deadline, the Phillies gave up their top prospects in the Halladay deal, parting ways with what most consider to be their 2nd, 3rd and 4th rated prospects, two of which could see the majors this season in the form of Michael Taylor and Kyle Drabek. Besides the talent these three possess that’s also giving away up to six years that they would have them under control, salary wise. This poses a significant financial risk to the Phillies in addition to the inherent risk in allocating $20 million per year to a pitcher in their mid-30’s. The Phillies have a budget they have proven to be up against and important contributors (Jayson Werth and Joe Blanton) due to have their contracts expire after next year, which much more following the 2011 season. Young contributors still on their affordable rookie contracts is the best way to help offset the annual raises to core players, and both Taylor and Drabek had the very real chance of being ready to contribute by the tail end of 2010.

The prospects the Phillies brought in from Seattle are a mixed bag, at best roughly equivalent to the talent the Phillies sent out to acquire Lee during the midseason trade. Phillippe Aumont is Seattle’s former #1 pick, and was rated in Baseball America’s top 100 prospects heading into the 2009 season, but his move to the bullpen lessens his potential value. This becomes even more of a concern from the rumors that he was moved there because of a degenerative hip condition that prevents Aumont from throwing starters innings. Aumont has admitted to his hip being a problem, although he has denied that it is either degenerative or the impetus for his move to the bullpen. If Aumont can be converted back to a starter his value increases significantly. If not, the hope is he can develop into a closer down the line.

Tyson Gillies is a 21-year-old outfield prospect who put up very good numbers in the High-A California League, which has to be tempered by the fact that the league is generally considered to be extremely hitter friendly. It’s unlikely he projects to have any significant power potential, but his speed and plate discipline keep him as a prospect with at least some potential. If he starts the season at AA Reading the Phillies should have a much better guage on his future role on the team.

The last prospect the Phillies received is J.C. Ramirez, who reportedly has plus-stuff, but so far has not gotten the results to place him as a top level prospect. At 21 as well, he still has time to turn it around, but he is most assuredly a ways away.

On the positive, the Phillies did retain Domonic Brown, the player they have pegged as their top positional prospect and the one piece they were unwilling to give away. Brown is further away from the big leagues than Michael Taylor, but with the Phillies returning three All-star outfielders and having Ben Francisco in the fold as a legitimate 4th outfielder, that may be a good thing. Most scouts believe that Brown has a higher upside than Taylor, and the Phillies don’t have an immediate need for an outfielder unless Jayson Werth leaves, which is at least a year away.

The key, in the end, was Kyle Drabek. Drabek was the piece the Blue Jays wanted during the season, and the one the Phillies were reluctant to give away. The reality that Lee was going to test free agency, along with the ability to get Halladay signed long term, apparently was enough for the Phillies to reconsider. Drabek come back from Tommy John surgery on fire last year, and his loss is the one most likely to sting in coming years.

The inability to retain Lee and form a monster of a rotation is a little disappointing, and could have potentially been avoided. If the Phillies had been able to clear (or non-tender) Blanton and Chad Durbin, it may have been a reality even with the Jammie Moyer mistake from the previous offseason. Had they been able to clear the salary to do so under their self-imposed cap, I would have much rather gone into 2010 with Halladay, Lee and Hamels, and let Lee walk in free agency and receive the compensatory picks in exchange. Once you get past that and realize that they weren’t going to be able to do that, the Phillies did end up with one of the top three best pitchers in baseball, locked into a below market value contract for the next four years, and received enough talent back in the Lee-to-Seattle trade to arguably make up for the talent they gave up to Cleveland to get Lee last year. The trio of Halladay, Hamels, and last year’s NL Rookie of the Year runner-up J.A. Happ should form a starting rotation that can compete with anyone for the next few years, and the nucleus of the team, if held together, should be in their prime during the duration of Halladay’s contract. This move comes with potential risks, not only because of the talent they gave up but perhaps more importantly the financial difficulties this trade has potentially made worse. Even so, if the Phillies are able to keep this nucleus together, this trade only increases their odds of contending for another World Championship.

Grade for Phillies: B+

Seattle’s addition of Cliff Lee for relative peanuts will always be viewed as a great acquisition, even if it is only for one season. Along with the addition Chone Figgins, as well as the turbulent offseason the Angels have gone through, it may be enough to catapult the Mariners into serious AL West contention, and if it does that the Mariners will come away runaway winners. The combination of Lee and Felix Hernandez at the top of Seattle’s rotation is as good as anyone in the league, and should keep them in a lot of ballgames. Whether their anemic offense (last in the AL in runs per game last year) can improve enough to make them serious playoff contenders is the question. Figgins over an injured (and ineffective when he did play) Beltre should help stabilize things somewhat.

Grade for Mariners: A-

Toronto was asking for Brown, Taylor, and Drabek/Happ last year at the deadline. They ended up getting two from that grouping, including the Phillies best pitching prospect and two of their three best positional prospects, despite the fact that the Halladay could contribute to one less playoff run before hitting free agency and had a short list teams he would approve a trade to. Because of that, this trade has to be a success, even if the result had more to do with Halladay’s willingness to negotiate a long term deal than anything Toronto directly did to increase his value between the trade deadline and now. Drabek is the centerpiece of the deal, and while he’s not a sure thing (no pitcher coming back from Tommy John surgery is, particularly a minor leaguer who hasn’t pitched above AA), he has looked very good since coming back from injury and is sure to jump way up in minor league rankings. There’s an outside chance both could hit the big leagues next year, moreso for Taylor than Drabek, and the Blue Jays should have a fairly high chance of seeing productivity from both of them at some point in the future. D’Arnaud is a viable catching prospect, albeit one a few years away. The report is the Blue Jays may flip Taylor for Brett Wallace of the Athletics, a very highly rated third baseman acquired in the Matt Holliday trade. That may not be the level of talent some Blue Jays fans had hoped for, but considering their loss of leverage in negotiations the Blue Jays would see as Halladay approached free agency was probably about as good as they could have hoped for. Were they better off accepting some of the opposing offers received at the trade deadline last year? That’s going to be the big question gnawing at Blue Jays fans in years to come.

Grade for Blue Jays: B

With reports trickling out that the Philadelphia 76ers may be on the verge of bringing back Allen Iverson, they have moved to the forefront of the Philadelphia sports landscape, dominating headlines and radio airwaves.

If you were wondering why the Sixers are considering such a move, you already have your answer.

They are last in the league in attendance filling a measly 58% of the seats at the Wachovia Center, and that’s with numerous ticket promotions that are practically giving away seats. Interest in the team is seemingly at an all-time low. The future doesn’t look any more promising, with mounting injuries and a five-game losing streak.

In the face of such adversity, the front office needs to keep their focus on the long-term goal of this (and any) organization: winning a championship.

At best, signing Allen Iverson is shortsighted.

At worst, it’s detrimental to the ultimate goal of winning a title.

Limited (Basketball) Rewards

Any thought of Iverson transforming this collection of talent into a serious contender is vastly over-stating his current basketball talent, and possibly the effect he ever had. Allen Iverson is not going to fix this team’s defensive issues — the Sixers are currently ranked 28th in Defensive Rating and 27th in terms of opponents eFG%.

In fact, if he starts over Jrue Holiday, he’ll make them worse. He’s also not going to fix the team’s defensive rebounding problem, which again has the Sixers in the bottom third in the league. If this signing “works” he might sneak them into the 37-win range and allow them to play another quick series against the Orlando Magic. And that’s if everything goes right.

Short-term Attendance Boost

The signing of Iverson would likely lead to a boost in attendance, but that boost will be short lived. As was shown in the twilight of Iverson’s first stint he alone is not enough to pack the Wachovia Center. As the Sixers win total dipped, so did attendance. During the 2005-2006 season, the Sixers went from 10th in the league in attendance to 21st, then to 23rd in the league in 2006-2007, the season Iverson was dealt.

Simply making the playoffs and losing in the first round is unlikely to drastically change this team’s long-term attendance prospects. After going .500 last year and heading back to Philadelphia tied 1-1 with the Orlando Magic, the Sixers drew a meager 16,000 fans for Game 3 at home.

After stunning the Magic in Game 3 to take a 2-1 lead?

16,000 again.

That’s only 80% capacity, which would put the Sixers at 23rd in the league if they averaged that on a daily basis in the regular season. And we’ve talking about a playoff game.

A short-term sideshow isn’t likely to increase attendance long-term. It didn’t last time Iverson was here. Making the playoffs to be first round fodder for a legitimate contender likely isn’t going to draw the fans in droves either, as last year’s “run” showed. If you want
to fix the attendance problem you need to make this team into a legitimate contender.

You have a much better chance to do that by developing the talent you already have and by increasing your flexibility to make future moves. Signing Allen Iverson does neither. He won’t be here in three years when most of this team reaches it’s prime and he won’t be able to will this team to contention right away.

Stunting Player Development

If the Sixers were the Celtics or the Magic, a team with legitimate title talent and possibly one piece away, I could understand the thought, and even then it wouldn’t be a slam dunk. But that does not describe the Sixers at all, which means the potential gain the Sixers can receive is limited. So is it worth the damage?

Outside of the obvious players, Holiday and Louis Williams (when he returns), the addition of Iverson could also take
touches and scoring opportunities away from Thaddeus Young and Marreese Speights, two developing scorers critical to the long-term success of the team.

It’s debatable how many minutes is too many for the young Holiday, but if he’s able to play through his mistakes, knowing he has minutes available to him every night, that could speed up his development quite a bit. His talent (on both ends of the floor) is obvious, and each and every night is a learning experience for him. I could understand relegating him to 12th man role if the Sixers were contenders, but doing so for the sole reason of selling tickets is a huge set-back for this team. As would taking touches away from Young and Williams.

Lineup Craziness

Part of what’s flying under the radar is
the craziness that has reportedly been coming From Eddie Jordan.

From Stephen A. Smith’s article:

“Team sources confirmed on Friday that Iverson would be a starter because Jordan had planned on starting Williams with rookie Jrue Holiday anyway, just to put some excitement and more ball-handlers into his Princeton-style offense. So even once Williams returns from injury, he’d
be in the starting lineup with Iverson.”

If that doesn’t prove that Eddie Jordan is merely playing lip service to defense (or, perhaps even scarier, has no clue about defense), I don’t know what else can. Iverson and Williams starting in the backcourt, with Thaddeus Young at the four is so poor defensively and on the glass it’s
almost laughable. If that’s what the head coach is thinking this team is in some serious long term trouble. Opposing guards will be penetrating at will, Philadelphia’s problems defending the three will only get worse, and they’ll
get killed on a nightly basis on the glass. But they’ll be more exciting!

The thought of moving Thaddeus Young back to the power forward spot to accommodate this change also, in my mind, is another reason this move could stunt the long term development of one of this team’s core players. It has
become clear that Young is not a long-term solution at power forward and asking him to change his position (and hence his role) yet again only delays the development of the 21-year-old’s future at his true position, small forward.

Short-term Gain Not Worth Long-term Penalty

Also from Smith’s report:

“Eddie needs a playmaker,” another source said. “He needs an identity. Something to create some excitement.”

…

“But let’s face it: We’re very, very boring right now,” a team source said. “We have absolutely nothing to lose by bringing Iverson back. Nothing at all.”

There you have it. If this does come to fruition, this is a purely financial decision made to generate excitement. But it smacks of a move made out of desperation, moves which rarely turn out well. This does nothing to enhance the long-term success of the team, perhaps even
greatly stunts the teams development, and will not fix their attendance problems. That can only be fixed by acquiring and developing talent that can work together as a cohesive group. If the Sixers brass thinks this is a good for the team, then I question their ability to lead the Sixers.

Generating a circus atmosphere should not be the goal of the organization, but it seems they are likely to do so in order to increase the bottom line.

Let’s hope Ed Stefanski has the vision and wherewithal to not succumb to that temptation.

Outside of a late-season run by the Braves, the Phillies lead has remained consistent. Meanwhile, they have been playing uninspired baseball for the last month. They entered the playoffs on a tear the last two years, so can they flip the switch?

The Phillies are tops in the NL in runs scored and home runs. They also have the fifth best ERA in baseball since the All-Star break, a combination that usually brings postseason success. So why the concern? How about a 17-16 record since the beginning of September, inconsistent pitching from the entire starting staff, injuries to prominent relievers, an absolutely terrifying closer situation and a month-long slump from Chase Utley.

Despite having a more talented starting rotation than in year’s past, it’s a group that’s not pitching at the top of their game. Cole Hamels (last year’s World Series MVP) and Lee (last year’s AL Cy Young winner) are both running through bouts of inconsistency, showing equal flashes of brilliance and struggle. The worry of having tired arms is real, with Hamels leading the league in innings pitched last year and Lee pitching the most innings in his career for the second year in a row.

Combine that with Joe Blanton, the model of consistency in June, July and August, having been bombed in three of his last five starts and Pedro Martinez struggling with a neck injury and the Phillies are presented with an extremely talented, but combustible, starting rotation.

The struggles in the ninth inning have been well-documented, and are no closer to resolution. To make matters worse, the bullpen has had some of it’s depth depleted due to injury, with prominent relievers J.C. Romero and Chan Ho Park not in Charlie Manuel’s arsenal.

Perhaps the most worrisome is Utley’s collapse and what it means to the offense. After hitting .313 with 20 home runs and a 1.004 OPS before the break, Utley has struggled mightily of late, hitting only .204 in September. This (along with Shane Victorino’s struggles) has led to an inconsistent offense that could be problematic, especially if the starting pitching isn’t on the top of their game.

Still, this is clearly a talented team, and one that if their healthy components return to top form is going to be a tough out for anyone in either league. But, at this point, fans are riding more on hope than confidence. How much of the team’s struggles and inconsistency were the case of not being challenged? Can the team flip the switch and revert to form? I’d rather be confident than hopeful.

All that being said, the Rockies may be the best draw for the Phillies in the first round. That may sound odd, considering the Rockies are the only NL playoff team that didn’t go limping into the playoffs, but Philadelphia matches up favorably with Colorado’s left-handed heavy lineup and right-handed heavy starting rotation. The Rockies produce only a .765 OPS against lefties, and the home-road split is perhaps more troublesome, producing only a .719 OPS on the road.

Overall, the Phillies have a solid chance of advancing past the first round, but if they want to have a legitimate shot at repeating a host of questions need to be answered.

The test starts Wednesday

Ask any of Charlie Manuel’s players, either past or present, to describe him and one of the first words you will hear is loyalty.

Used in a positive light this will reflect the genuine affection his players feel for him, perhaps one of the reasons he is able to keep said players performing as a cohesive unit.

After achieving perfection last season as one of the key components in helping the Manuel led Philadelphia Phillies to only the second World Championship in franchise history, it is easy to see why Manuel would have an extreme sense of loyalty to Brad Lidge. Add in the fact that Lidge is a high-character, hard-working player and you can’t help but root for him to succeed.

I recall back to August 18th against the Padres, the game in which Lidge suffered his first blown save as a Phillie. The standing ovation he received was one of the better displays of appreciation the fans would shower upon last years champions.

Nobody, not the fans in attendance, nor the ones watching on television, or Edward Murphy himself, could have predicted what would become of Brad Lidge’s 2009 season. As historically good his 2008 season was, his 2009 season has been equally epically poor. Looking through the annals of baseball you will be hard pressed to find a season as bad as Lidge’s this year, particularly from a prominent closer logging as many innings as Lidge has on a contending team.

0-7, 6.97 ERA, 1.80 WHIP. Opponents hitting a staggering .295 against him. He has 10 blown saves in 38 chances.

At some point, being loyal to one player becomes being disloyal to the other 24. Eventually, past success (even a season of perfection) is no longer a reliable predictor of future performance. Lidge followed up his tenth blown save of the season with another miserable outing, entering the 9th inning of a 5-3 game he gave up a single, hit a batter, threw a wild pitch, and gave up a walk in only 1/3 of an inning.

That seemed to be the tipping point for Manuel, who took Lidge out and brought in Ryan Madson to get the final two outs. Madson would go to record saves in his next two opportunities before giving up 2 runs on 3 hits in a 10-9 loss to the Mets on Saturday afternoon.

Perhaps prompted by Madson’s bad outing, or perhaps because Madson had been seeing a lot of innings recently, Lidge got another opportunity to save a game on Sunday. This time he was “successful” as he recorded the save allowing 2 runs in one inning of a 5-4 win. Which brings us back to square one and the uncertainty of knowing who will be working the 9th inning from game-to-game.

There was more to Manuel’s resistance to change than just loyalty. Fresh off of an extension he received during the course of last season, there has to be some concern that demoting Lidge for the remainder of the season could damage his psyche, putting perhaps more than just the remainder of this season in doubt. Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it, and demoting Lidge during his struggles in Houston didn’t exactly fare well for the Astros.

Furthermore, Charlie Manuel simply isn’t presented with an abundance of quality options. There are many candidates, all of whom provide a great deal of risk and uncertainty. The best option of the group is a healthy, confident and effective Brad Lidge.

Madson, Plan B, has himself blown 6 saves in 14 opportunities, which includes time he spent filling in as the closer when Lidge was injured back in June as well as the recent opportunities after Lidge’s temporary demotion. Establishing himself as one of the best set-up men in baseball with a fastball that can reach the upper 90’s with good movement, Madson’s 9th inning struggles have been perplexing, but real. Having given up only 2 home runs in 166 at-bats in the 8th inning, Madson has been victimized by 5 home runs in less than half the number of at-bats in the 9th. Despite being tied for 3rd in the National League in blown saves at 6, Madson remains the frontrunner for the closing position should Lidge continue to falter.

Brett Myers is a name that has been floated around, particularly since he will be used as a reliever for the remainder of the season after suffering a torn labrum in his hip back in May, and also because he has closer experience in the past. This would require Manuel to trust the closer’s role heading into the playoffs to a player who is largely unknown, having logged only 4 2/3 innings since returning from a major injury. The 3 earned runs he gave up on Saturday against the Mets in only a third of an inning won’t help his chances of being given the responsibility, at least not initially. If Myers becomes lights out in the bullpen over the next few weeks, and Madson and Lidge continue to struggle, Myers could become an option.

Doing the math, the Phillies are going to have a tough decision to make on their starting rotation come playoff time. Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton are virtual guarantees to be in the starting rotation, which means either J.A. Happ (10-4 with a 2.77 ERA) or Pedro Martinez (5-0, 2.87) is going to be the odd man out. Could Pedro step in and be a steadying force in the 9th inning? He has come out of the bullpen in the playoffs in the past, but his starts so far this year paint a troubling picture. Entering last night’s masterpiece against the Mets, Pedro had a 7.50 ERA with opponents hitting .370 against him in the first inning. While he has been able to overcome a slow start as a starting pitcher, he would not be afforded the same luxury in a closing role.

That leaves Happ, the rookie who could potentially be left out of the postseason starting rotation in favor of the more experienced Martinez. Lacking a bona-fide, dominant out pitch, Happ has not been nearly as effective as a reliever as he has a starter. For his career he has a 3.94 ERA out of the bullpen (compared with a 2.95 ERA as a starter). He was effective this year out of the pen (2.49 ERA), albeit in limited time. Having never closed before in his professional life, if the Phillies were looking to go this route they would seemingly have to experiment with the idea soon to gauge whether it has any legs, a situation made even more tricky based on the fact that Happ is currently nursing a strained oblique.

After not losing a game in which they entered the 9th inning with a lead during the entire 2008 season, the Phillies have blown 21 saves so far this year. What was the strength of the World Championship team appears that it could be this years Achilles heal. Brad Lidge should have already run out of chances, and cannot be relied on this year. He should only get the job back in the event all other options have been exhausted and have proven they cannot perform the role.

Unfortunately, his teammates seem eager to oblige. The
Phillies don’t have a solid answer to their 9th inning demons, which could ultimately be the flaw that prevents them from duplicating their October success.

The Phillies been on the other end of the trade deadline spectrum.

Philadelphia fans watched in disbelief as their ace got traded for Vicente Padilla, Travis Lee and Omar Daal. They’ve seen players demand trades, and players shed for salary purposes. They’ve seen the Phillies assume the role of reluctant buyers, making “huge” trade deadline acquisitions like Turk Wendell. So,please excuse Phillies fans if they’re not exactly sure how to react to the addition of Cliff Lee.

Sure, Lee is not Roy Halladay, and after spending the better part of a month talking about how great of an addition the right-hander from Toronto would have made to the Phillies’ staff, it’s easy to overlook how great of a move adding Cliff Lee is. The trade is an unqualified success, allowing the Phillies to improve their chances of immediate success while keeping the farm system ripe with young, cheap talent ready to contribute.

I liked Jason Knapp, but the kid is just 18 years old and currently on the disabled list. He’s years, and many good breaks, away from contributing at the major league level. Carrasco, Donald and Marson were highly thought of heading into the season, but all have stumbled to varying degrees this year.

None of the four traded players would likely be listed as a top-five prospect in the organization right now. If you can get the reigning American League Cy Young winner without giving up any player currently on your major league roster and without trading any of your top-five prospects, that’s a trade you have to make.

It’s not only the talent level which they traded, but also the talent they didn’t trade that makes this deal so much of a slam dunk. The top prospects the Blue Jays were asking for are either currently producing at the big league level or close to it. J.A. Happ is making a case for Rookie of the Year, while Kyle Drabek (promoted to AA Reading at the beginning of June), Taylor (promoted to AAA a few weeks ago), and Dominic Brown (promoted to AA a few days ago) are moving up the ladder.

If the goal of trading for Halladay was to try to win the next two Octobers, losing three out of Happ, Taylor, Brown and Drabek would have been costly. That’s not necessarily just production in 2012 you’re risking, but also in the next fourteen months.

Lee may not give you a season like 2008 again, but he has firmly established himself as a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Looking at 2007 as an aberration, when he never fully recovered from a groin strain that caused him to start the year on the disabled list, he has been getting progressively better throughout his career. His HR/9, BB/9 and strikeouts per walk show 2008 was not a fluke, and that Lee is a significantly better pitcher than he was in 2005 and 2006.

One concern has been Lee’s moving away from Cleveland’s Progressive Field, generally recognized as a historically pitcher-friendly park. This concern is mostly quelled by his outstanding numbers away from home. In 12 road starts this year, Lee has a 3.03 ERA and opponents actually have both a higher on-base percentage and slugging percentage against him at home than on the road. Similarly, Lee gave up fewer home runs per nine innings and a lower slugging percentage on the road than at home last year. Expect his numbers to carry over, especially considering the advantage he should gain in switching leagues.

The Phillies made a trade for October, a deal with very little risk and very large upside. With a seven-game lead in the division, the front office could have gotten frustrated with the Halladay negotiations and justifiably made the argument that they could compete with the roster they had. Instead, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. made a tremendous acquisition with very little negative effect on the long-term health of the farm system.

Had the Phillies not spent the last few weeks salivating over Doc Halladay, there would be nary a naysayer to this deal.

Enjoy watching Cliff Lee in October, and be happy the Phils aren’t on the other end of this type of deal.

Nearly six weeks after the NBA Draft, the Sixers are poised to make their first free agent acquisition of the Summer.

That player is Royal Ivey.

Yes, the same Ivey that less than two months ago declined to pick up his option with the Sixers for the 2009-2010 season.

Sixers fans can now breath a sigh of relief.

Past contractual mistakes, committed by both the previous and current regime, combined with the league-wide drop in basketball-related income, which lead to a drop in the salary cap and perhaps more importantly a drop in the luxury tax threshold, have stifled the Sixers ability to provide significant additions to a roster already short on talent and experience.

After parting ways with Andre Miller without getting anything in return and sitting out the bidding on both veteran (Mike Bibby) and young (Ramon Sessions) point guard options, the Sixers hesitance to explore multi-year deals has left them with returning combo-guard Louis Williams, 19-year-old rookie Jrue Holiday and Ivey as their options to start in the backcourt.

Heading into free agency it became obvious that the Sixers and Miller would part ways, but there was the fleeting hope that they could work out a sign-and-trade deal and get something of value in return. That failed to materialize. It then became apparent very early on in the process that long-term deals were unlikely. Realizing this, my expectations for this offseason have been lowered drastically. I expect to be stuck in NBA purgatory next season, not good enough to realistically contend, and not bad enough to obtain high level talent in the draft. And even with these lowered expectations, I came away sorely
disappointed.

Signing Ivey epitomizes the frustration of this offseason.

Philadelphia does needs to fill out the remaining spots on their roster, so why should signing Ivey get under your skin?

Signing someone to vault the Sixers into realistic contenders, even contenders to advance past the first round of the playoffs, is slim at this point. So what should we be looking for in filling out the few remaining spots?

Since Ivey is unlikely to make an appreciable difference in the success or failure of the Sixers season, I would want someone who fills one of the below criteria:

1. Would be a part of the team’s long term plans.
2. Is such a tremendous fit that his value for the Sixers is significantly greater than his talent level.
3. Has enough experience and veteran savvy that he can guide the youth on the team and aid in their development.

Ivey accomplishes none of these. He’s not likely to be onthe team long-term and doesn’t provide either the shooting or true point guard play that the Sixers need from another member of the rotation. At 27, Ivey has logged barely 4,000 minutes and only 45 in the postseason, so it’s hard to imagine him taking Holiday under his wing and mentoring him.

Giving minutes to Ivey that could go to either Holiday or Williams seems counterproductive. Williams may very well turn out to lack the mentality needed to run the point guard and may be a better option as a spark off the bench. That being said, I would rather see Williams fail as a point guard then go through the season and not get that question answered.

Royal Ivey is your big offseason addition. I commiserate with you Philadelphia fans. This is the immediate future we find ourselves in.

With 20 games left to go in the regular season, it has become painfully obvious what the Sixers are. And, more importantly, what they are not.

A team just good enough to hold your interest, but not good enough to really make you believe. A team good enough to play well in spurts, but not good enough to play well consistently. Fun to watch when the running game is going, hard to watch when a playoff quality team who takes care of the basketball and plays tough half-court defense comes to town.

They are a .500 team. Mediocre by any definition of the word. Without one strength (outside of the fast break) that you can hang your hat on and count on being in your favor every night. Not a great offensive team, not a superb defensive team, and a sub-par rebounding team.

Sure, there can be excuses. Prized free agent Elton Brand not being a contributor the past few months hasn’t helped, although with the way some pundits reacted at the time of his injury you would think his absence would have jump-started the team into greatness. Regardless, this is the team that you’ll see in the playoffs and, minus Thaddeus Young’s game maturing years in a matter of days, does anyone think a playoff series win is all that probable?

As such, it becomes incumbent on the team to find out one critical piece of information. A decision that, with the possible exception of Andre Miller’s future, is as important as any they’ll face. Coming into the year Ed Stefanski pushed the wing combo of Andre Iguodala at shooting guard and Thaddeus Young at small forward, an “experiment” abandoned 21 games into the season.

If the Sixers determine Andre Iguodala is incapable of playing the shooting guard position, then what becomes of Thaddeus Young? The potential possibilities seem limited, and bad for Sixers fans:

- Come off the bench, behind Iguodala at the small foward and Brand at the power forward.

- Start Thad at small forward, with Iguodala moving to the shooting guard position.

- Be included in a deal for a better fit at shooting guard.

He can not, and should not, play the power forward position full time, and with Elton Brand returning next year (as well as reserve Jason Smith), minutes there will be sparse. And Young is simply too talented, with too much upside to keep pinned to the bench. This is a kid who is showing his mettle playing 35+ minutes per game on a team making a playoff push, which at times makes you forget he’ll still be only 20 years old at the end of the season.

A trade? Any such move would make me highly nervous. A player that has shown this much, at such a young age, with the physical tools to improve tremendously, and a good work ethic is not something you just let go. Unless it’s a sure thing, something that will make you contenders now, Sixers fans better not watch Young blossom into an all-star from afar.

So, that leaves one outcome that Sixers fans have to hope for, and that’s that Iguodala and Young can co-exist. The Sixers have quite a bit invested in that scenario, both from a financial perspective (Iguodala’s $80 million contract) and from a talent perspective. If next year Thaddeus Young is wasting away on the bench while Willie Green is starting, the Sixers have taken a serious step back in terms of talent.

This is the time, right now with 20 games left, to give Iguodala and Young a chance. Not only does it give yourself a larger sample size to create a more informed opinion on the duo, but it may give you the best chance of winning, too.

Iguodala’s struggles to begin the season are well documented. He averaged a dreadful 13.3 points per game in November, shooting 40.7% from the field. A far cry from his averages of 19.9 points per game at 45.6% shooting last year. However, this isn’t entirely uncommon for Iguodala, who has historically been a slow starter. Last year he averaged 17.4 points per game in November on only 41.4% shooting, 28.6% from 3, and committed a dismal 4.1 turnovers per game. He went on to average 20.8 points per game on 47.2% field goal shooting, 35.9% from 3, while turning the ball over only 2 times per game after the all-star break.

He did begin to show signs of coming out of his slump before Willie Green replaced Young in the starting lineup, while Iguodala was still primarily playing the shooting guard position. The last 4 games of the original starting lineup saw Iguodala average 18.3 points per game, 8.25 rebounds per game, and 4.5 assists on 49.2% from the field.

The argument has been made that Iguodala isn’t a two, and can’t play shooting guard in the NBA. I don’t necessarily believe that. I believe in roles and pairing of skills more than I differentiate between positions. More or less, the guys defending Iguodala are going to be nearly the same whether he’s playing the 2 of the 3. The key is whether he fits in with the skill-sets of the teammates he has on the court. He can be successful as a shooting guard between shooters like Calderon and Rashard Lewis, or he could be successful as a small forward next to Ray Allen. The key is skill-sets, not position.

According to 82games.com, Iguodala has had a higher PER at shooting guard in three of his first 4 years in the league (15.4 vs 12.2 in his rookie year, followed by 17.1 vs 14.8 his second and 20.9 vs 18.3 his third). His minutes during those 3 years were fairly evenly split between the two positions. What was different then that isn’t now? When he was playing shooting guard in the past he was playing next to Kyle Korver at small forward. A very different skill-set than anyone currently in the Sixers regular rotation.

So, can Thaddeus Young be a good enough shooter to make the pairing work? I’m not sure he is now, and he might not even be next year. But he’s on his way. After making only 6 three pointers on 31.6% shooting last year Young has made 50 so far this year at a 34.2% clip. His efficiency has gone up as the year has gone on, making 36% or better in both January and February, and 36.8% since the break. To me, the question is when Thaddeus Young gains consistency from the outside, not if.

Similarly, if the Sixers had a point guard with more three point range, how much would that help mask Iguodala’s shooting deficiencies? The question is as much how Andre Miller, Iguodala and Young fit together as it is how Iguodala and Young match up. With Andre Miller not under contract beyond this year, it becomes hard to predict the future.

Finally, there needs to be more proof that Iguodala at the shooting guard position didn’t work. Sure, Iguodala struggled, but the Miller-Iguodala-Young-Brand-Dalembert lineup had a very positive +/- rating, and overall won their shifts. The unit was one of the best defensive units the Sixers had. How much defensive potential does an Iguodala-Young-Brand trio have? How much overall potential does that trio have if Young continues his ascension?

Are we really ready to abandon that potential wing pair (and, in turn, potentially abandon a 20-year-old talent) with a very small sample size, based primarily on the assumption that Iguodala can’t play shooting guard, while ignoring the fact that it very well could have just been a historically slow starter starting the season slow, and ignoring the overall positive output that lineup had?

When the Sixers began winning after changing the lineup to put Thaddeus Young at the power forward spot, it created a resistance to change. The Sixers poor post all-star break has been the lubricant needed for change. It’s time to go back to the original plan, the Sixers future depends on the duo of Iguodala and Young working. It might even help you win now.

The Sixers 2-4 start to the much anticipated 2008-2009 season might have some fans scratching their heads in disbelief. But, when you sit back and look at it, the dreadful start might not be all that surprising.

There’s no doubt Ed Stefanski had a marvelous offseason. Marreese Speights was great value at the 16th pick in the draft, and all the moves the Sixers made to maximize their cap space paid off in spades with the signing of the premier player on the free agent market in Elton Brand. A 20 and 10 power forward who plays good defense isn’t something you get the chance to obtain very often.

That being said, the expectations set for this team by fans and media pundits alike were unfairly high. The Sixers, as currently constructed, simply do not get the most out of the talent they have. They don’t fit. And Ed Stefanski still has work to do.

Cause for concern should have been raised after looking back on the 2002-2003 Los Angeles Clippers, a team Brand and Miller led to a 27-55 record. A year in which Miller, a career 45.8% shooter, connected on only 40.6% of his shots, and where Brand averaged nearly two points per game less than his career average.

Those concerns have been validated during their first six games together as members of the Sixers.

Since arriving in town, Elton Brand has been hailed as the Sixers’ savior. A true low-post scoring power forward who could force double teams and kick out to the open man.

Sure, Brand can score in the post, and that is certainly a facet of his game that he could provide when called upon. But that’s never really been his bread and butter. Even before the injury, Brand’s comfort zone was the 15′ jump shot, with his most profound success coming off the pick and roll. During the 2005-2006 campaign in which Brand averaged over 24 points per game, 70% of his field goal attempts were jump shots.

And herein lies the problem. With Andre Miller’s limited range and pedestrian first step, the pick and roll is largely ineffective.

Effectively removing Brand’s favorite spot on the floor, the Sixers have forced him into trying to generate offense, both for himself and for his teammates, down on the low block. This becomes an even more difficult task since Andre Miller and Andre Iguodala’s defenders can double down without fear of leaving their man open, and since Samuel Dalembert’s man doesn’t have to pay too much attention to the offensively challenged center, leaving him free to provide quick double teams and help defense should Brand get the ball in the post.

And, with Brand initiating the offense in the post, it’s lessened the impact of possibly his second best offensive attribute, which is crashing the offensive boards, getting put-backs, and creating second chance scoring opportunities for his team.

Fundamentally, the key pieces of the team may not fit. There was considerable discussion about whether Andre Iguodala could thrive at the shooting guard position, especially after the team committed a reported $80 million to the streaky outside shooter. Those concerns have been lessened at least somewhat by Thaddeus Young’s increased proficiency from the perimeter. With Andre Miller’s potentially poor fit with Brand, and his unresolved contract situation, Miller might be the square peg.

That’s not to take anything away from the job Ed Stefanski was able to accomplish over the summer. Elton Brand is a piece that is extremely hard to replace, and when the opportunity presented itself, getting a 20 and 10 power forward who can play both ends of the court was a no-brainer. It’s also very likely that the problems with the team appear more pronounced while the new pieces get acclimated to each other.

Ultimately, Elton Brand is a good addition to any team in the league. His ability to get offensive rebounds, provide help defense, and pound the defensive glass is going to help any team he joins. The question is whether or not the combination of players on the roster fit well enough to maximize their individual talents.

If this team has championship aspirations down the line, general manager Ed Stefanski is going to have some tough decisions to make. The question of whether or not Andre Miller is a good fit with Elton Brand appears to be a valid one.

They became immortals.

The Cubs have their little 100-year drought, but puh-lease. Philadelphia fans didn’t weep for Chicagoans when the Bulls won championship after championship in the 1990’s, or when the Bears routed the Patriots in 1985.

You see, it wasn’t just the pain that fans felt having gone 28 years without a baseball champion. Nor was it solely the pain that fans felt having only experienced one championship in the Phillies’ first 125
years of existence.

It was the culmination of 100 seasons that ended in disappointment across the four major sports.

Technically, it’s 98 seasons. But strike years in the NHL and MLB where a champion isn’t crowned certainly counts as a disappointment in my book.

Losing for 100 seasons is tough, but when there’s no other team in town providing a diversion? It’s heartbreaking.

There were lots of close calls. We continually looked towards next year, the infamous time that never arrives.

Philadelphia fans of this generation have been scarred, battered, beaten, and at times, disillusioned.

We have come to revere those teams who that come oh-so-close. These teams have been celebrated nearly as much for their personality as they have been for their winning.

We have long celebrated the 1993 Phillies. The group of characters, dubbed “Macho Row”, has long had a place in our hearts for the way they played the game, and their worst-to-first turnaround from the previous year provided genuine excitement. That team, ultimately came up two wins short of capturing a championship.

A back injury to Lenny Dykstra, knee troubles for Darren Daulton and a strike-shortened 1994
season later, and the Phillies were back in their typical role, missing the playoffs every season until 2007.

In 2001, the little-guy-who-could made us believe, if only briefly. The Allen Iverson-led Philadelphia 76ers burst out the gate to a 10-0 start on their way to an NBA Finals appearance. After taking a stunning 1-0 lead against the heavily-favored Lakers in Los Angeles, they lost the next four games in route to another L.A. championship.

For years, Philadelphia fans have been idolizing underdog teams without the requisite talent to win a championship, who have captured our hearts and taken us on great, but unfinished, rides.

This time, our time has come. This time, Philadelphia had legitimate championship-level talent.

This time, Blaine Bishop tackles Joe Jurevicius. Eric Lindros doesn’t suffer a concussion. Jim Fregosi doesn’t send his closer out with a dead arm to serve up a meatball to Joe Carter. San Antonio doesn’t leapfrog the Sixers in the lottery. This time, we get Tim Duncan, not Tim Thomas or Keith Van Horn.

This time, the baseball gods were on our side.

The curse of William Penn has long been blamed for Philadelphia’s title drought. It’s not that we believe in curses. Logically, we know it has been the mistakes of the front offices, a lack of talent, or sheer
bad luck getting in the way of our hopes and dreams.

But, at some point, one can begin to feel cursed. At some point, you have to wonder whether you’ll actually ever witness a parade.

Every year, luck, along with a heavy dose of talent, is required to win a championship. Certainly, the Phillies skated through the season largely injury-free, most importantly to their starting rotation. But luck does not make a champion. It’s still required that you capitalize on that luck, and that takes talent.

Brett Myers, who produced six base hits in the last three years, drew a two out walk to extend an inning against Milwaukee’s CC Sabathia in Game 2 of the NLDS. That is certainly not something you come to expect.

But as great of a break as that was, it doesn’t plate a run without Shane Victorino’s grand slam two batters later.

Luck, effort and talent. A winning recipe. A combination no other team has been able to put together in a combined 100 seasons in this city.

This win was certainly tremendous for the players.

For Jamie Moyer, who finally won a championship in his 22nd big league season, while playing for the team he grew up rooting for.

For Chris Coste, the 33-year-old rookie who never let his dream die.

For Myers, and his chance at redemption. And Jason Werth, who contemplated leaving the game after recurring wrist injuries.

Certainly, the win was also for the bright homegrown stars that have transformed the Phillies into contenders. Jimmy Rollins and Pat Burrell. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels.

But, most importantly, this win was for the fans. The citizens of Philadelphia who have come so close, only to end up in agonizing defeat.

The fans who live, eat, and sleep Philadelphia sports, only to be shut out from a parade down Broad Street year-after-year.

This win was for the 35-year-old fan who was too young to remember what this feels like. It was also for the 25-year-old fan who wasn’t yet born the last time a championship parade was held here.

Entire generations of die-hard fans with no concept of witnessing greatness. Up until this point, fans who had never witnessed the pure ecstasy of winning a championship.

Even if only temporary, on that day everything in the world was picture perfect. Everyone in the city was your friend. On Friday afternoon, fans gathered along Broad Street with two million of their best friends to celebrate a feeling they had forgotten, and some had never known. During these troubled economic times, these hard-working fans got the diversion they needed from their everyday life.

They witnessed what it was like to be a champion. And in this city, that has made this group of Phillies immortal.

After watching C.C. Sabathia seemingly will his team to the playoffs with four consecutive starts on 3 days rest, it becomes tempting to ask a pitcher of Cole Hamels’ caliber to work on short rest during the World Series. After watching Joe Blanton (3 ER and 7 hits in only 5 innings in game 4 against the Dodgers) and Jamie Moyer (8 ER in 5.1 IP during the first two rounds of the playoffs) struggle, the thought of them pitching a decisive game 7 is cause for concern.

But trying to squeeze getting 3 starts from Cole Hamels?

That’s entering uncharted territory.

It’s no revelation that pitchers starting on 3 days rest with any sort of regularity is long gone. The number of times a starting pitcher was going on 3 days rest went from over 1,000 40 years ago to 844 in 1978, 221 times in 1988, and only 50 times in 1998.

That being said, this year saw a bit of a renaissance in that regard. Not that it happened all that frequently (only 40 starts), but those pitchers combined for a 17-10 record with a 3.64 earned run average, highlighted by Sabathia’s 3 starts at the end of the year, including his complete game, in which he allowed 1 un-earned run.

But now? In this spot? Having not done it at all this season? With no proven track record?

In the last 10 postseasons, 50 starts have been made on 3 days rest. Those teams are a combined 11-39 in those games started on short rest.

Even more worrisome, no pitcher has started 3 games of a seven game series in the last 15 years. There have been various pitchers who have started two of the first five games of a series who have come back in relief in game 7 of a series, most recently Pedro Martinez in the 2004 ALCS. Getting a 3rd start out of a starter would be unheard of in modern baseball.

(For the record, Pedro gave up 4 earned runs in only 6 innings pitched in his second start in the aforementioned 2004 ALCS, and gave up 2 earned runs in relief in game 7. Not the outcome fans would be looking for).

As tempting as it is to try to avoid a game 7 featuring Joe Blanton and Jamie Moyer, it’s much more imperative to try to increase the chances that Cole Hamels will give you two quality starts. The only way he should see a start on 3 days rest is if game 4 is an elimination game. In other words, it should be by circumstance, not design.

= What about the DH? =
The Designated Hitter situation would seem obvious, as the Phillies have a guy with a .301 batting average sitting on the bench without a true position in the field. But, with Gregg Dobbs only getting 9 total at bats all year against left handed pitchers, it’s doubtful Charlie Manuel is going to ask him to start hitting left handed pitching now.

The logical choice in that situation is Chris Coste, with a career .316 batting average and .864 OPS against left handed pitchers. Problem solved.

Not so fast.

If Manuel uses the same roster he did in the NLCS, Coste is the only backup catcher. If he’s batting DH, and Ruiz goes down, the only way the DH can move to become a positional player is if the Phillies forfeit the DH and allow the pitcher to bat in Ruiz’s spot.

It’s conceivable Eric Bruntlett, or even worse, So Taguchi, could be asked to play left field against left handed pitching, with Pat Burrell as the DH. This would put the Phillies at a distinct disadvantage, and remove the benefit the Phillies could gain by having another productive bat in the lineup. The decision on whether to have Bruntlett’s .217 batting average and .297 slugging percentage or Taguchi’s .220 batting average and .297 slugging percentage? Can we just have Cole Hamels DH?

The best option would be to have Lou Marson replace So Taguchi on the roster, allowing Chris Coste to DH, all the while keeping Marson available as the emergency catcher in the unlikely event that Ruiz should suffer an injury.

I know this will remove Charlie’s favorite defensive sub (who is a mediocre defender), pinch runner (who isn’t very fast), and pinch hitter (whose last pinch hit came in July), but this is a tradeoff that has to be made.

= Home Field Advantage Throughout =
12,489. That’s the number of fans in attendance on September 22nd at Tropicana Field. The Rays were 30 games above .500 heading into the game.

At one point this year, the Rays drew less than 10,000 people in 3 consecutive home games, and only drew 1.8 million in attendance on the year. By contrast, the Phillies only had 9 games with less than 30,000 fans in attendance since July 1st, drawing 3.4 million fans for the year.

The dawn of internet auctions and online ticket merchants have made traveling more of a possibility. With Tickets going at under $200 for a seat in Tampa, whereas the cheapest price for a ticket in Philadelphia is in the $500 range, expect to see a much stronger contingent of Phillies fans in Tampa than the other way around.