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	<title>Derek Bodner's Blog &#187; Phillies</title>
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		<title>Grading The Deal: Halladay, Lee Dealt In Three-Way Trade</title>
		<link>http://blog.derekbodner.com/2009/12/15/grading-the-deal-halladay-lee-dealt-in-three-way-trade/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=grading-the-deal-halladay-lee-dealt-in-three-way-trade</link>
		<comments>http://blog.derekbodner.com/2009/12/15/grading-the-deal-halladay-lee-dealt-in-three-way-trade/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Dec 2009 01:57:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Derek Bodner</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RealGM]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.derekbodner.com/?p=306</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Originally posted at baseball.realgm.com. Whenever a legitimate World Series team acquires one of the top three pitchers in the game, while giving up nothing that contributed to their World Series runs the previous two years, the baseball world tunes in. When two former CY Young winners exchange hands it becomes a blockbuster. Three teams at [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Originally posted at <a href="http://baseball.realgm.com/src_teamarticle/603/20091215/grading_the_deal_halladay_lee_dealt_in_three_way_trade/" target=new>baseball.realgm.com</a>.</p>
<p><span id="more-306"></span></p>
<p>Whenever a legitimate World Series team acquires one of the top three pitchers in the game, while giving up nothing that contributed to their World Series runs the previous two years, the baseball world tunes in. </p>
<p>When two former CY Young winners exchange hands it becomes a blockbuster. </p>
<p>Three teams at three different levels of of contention with three different agendas. Which one came out the best? </p>
<p>The Phillies intention in acquiring Roy Halladay is clear. Having won the NL pennant two years running and with a core presently in their prime acquiring perhaps the top right-handed pitcher in the game is of obvious interest. Roy Halladay has been the apple in Ruben Amaro Jr&#8217;s eye for a while, including at the trading deadline last year. The fact that they can acquire a pitcher of his caliber and lock him up for four years (his one remaining year with a three-year extension, with a vesting option on a 4th year) at an arguably below market value contract is an opportunity that doesn&#8217;t present itself every day. </p>
<p>Halladay has a no trade clause, and being legitimate contenders and having their Spring Training facility within virtual walking distance of his home put the Phillies on his short list. Even after the Cliff Lee trade last year, the Phillies have the talent accumulated in the minor leagues, and the potential fit was obvious. </p>
<p>But why, essentially, in place of Cliff Lee? </p>
<p><strong>Two main reasons: </strong></p>
<p>- 2009 payroll. The Phillies payroll has jumped from just over $100 million on opening day 2008 to nearly $140 million to end 2009. Even with 42 consecutive sellouts and Phillies merchandise littering the streets of Philadelphia, there is a limit. It appears they&#8217;ve reached that limit. With this trade the Blue Jays are sending $6 million in cash, which along with the outbound Cliff Lee&#8217;s salary covers Roy Halladay&#8217;s 2009 salary almost completely. </p>
<p>- Restocking the farm system. With the combined Lee and Halladay trade the Phillies would have sent out seven of their top 10 prospects from the 2009 Baseball America list in Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson to Cleveland and Michael Taylor, Kyle Drabek and Travis D&#8217;Arnaud in the Halladay trade. Those prospects would have netted the Phillies a lot of talent in Lee, Ben Francisco and Halladay, but also a lot of age (those three would have been 31, 28 and 33 by June of the 2010 season). That would have been a hefty price, both in the financial sense and in talent. </p>
<p>When rumors came out that the Phillies were leading the way in Halladay sweepstakes Philadelphia went abuzz in a frenzy, envisioning Halladay, Lee and Hamels forming potentially the best starting rotation in Phillies history. That may have set unrealistic expectations. Because of that, enthusiasm for this trade is now somewhat tempered. Acquiring Halladay while retaining Lee might have been greedy, but had it not been for some previous mistakes it may have been doable, at least from a financial sense. Lee at his $9 million salary for next year is a bargain, and the fact that he had to be moved to accommodate Halladay&#8217;s salary addition is disappointing. </p>
<p>The mistake last offseason of re-signing Jamie Moyer to a two-year deal is looming ever large, and may be the reason Lee had to be dealt. Even with that mistake, had the Phillies come to terms on a Halladay trade earlier in the offseason they could have not tendered Joe Blanton, who is likely to get a contract in the $7 million range. The dream could have been a reality. </p>
<p>Shoulda-woulda-coulda&#8217;s aside, once it became obvious that Lee and Halladay were an either/or situation, the choice became obvious. Besides the fact that Halladay is a better pitcher, and has been consistently excellent for a longer time than Lee, he&#8217;s also agreeable to a three-year (with a vested option on a 4th) contract extension at a below market value. Lee, on the other hand, is intent on allowing the free agent market to determine his worth, which meant the Phillies stood the very real chance of having him leave for only the compensatory draft picks a Type A free agency (as Lee most assuredly will be) would garner. Four years of Halladay is worth significantly more than one of Lee. Making this trade will improve the Phillies in 2010 marginally, and drastically for the following three years. </p>
<p>That&#8217;s not to say this isn&#8217;t without risk. It is, and fairly significantly in that. Unlike the Lee trade at the 2009 trade deadline, the Phillies gave up their top prospects in the Halladay deal, parting ways with what most consider to be their 2nd, 3rd and 4th rated prospects, two of which could see the majors this season in the form of Michael Taylor and Kyle Drabek. Besides the talent these three possess that&#8217;s also giving away up to six years that they would have them under control, salary wise. This poses a significant financial risk to the Phillies in addition to the inherent risk in allocating $20 million per year to a pitcher in their mid-30&#8242;s. The Phillies have a budget they have proven to be up against and important contributors (Jayson Werth and Joe Blanton) due to have their contracts expire after next year, which much more following the 2011 season. Young contributors still on their affordable rookie contracts is the best way to help offset the annual raises to core players, and both Taylor and Drabek had the very real chance of being ready to contribute by the tail end of 2010. </p>
<p>The prospects the Phillies brought in from Seattle are a mixed bag, at best roughly equivalent to the talent the Phillies sent out to acquire Lee during the midseason trade. Phillippe Aumont is Seattle&#8217;s former #1 pick, and was rated in Baseball America&#8217;s top 100 prospects heading into the 2009 season, but his move to the bullpen lessens his potential value. This becomes even more of a concern from the rumors that he was moved there because of a degenerative hip condition that prevents Aumont from throwing starters innings. Aumont has admitted to his hip being a problem, although he has denied that it is either degenerative or the impetus for his move to the bullpen. If Aumont can be converted back to a starter his value increases significantly. If not, the hope is he can develop into a closer down the line. </p>
<p>Tyson Gillies is a 21-year-old outfield prospect who put up very good numbers in the High-A California League, which has to be tempered by the fact that the league is generally considered to be extremely hitter friendly. It&#8217;s unlikely he projects to have any significant power potential, but his speed and plate discipline keep him as a prospect with at least some potential. If he starts the season at AA Reading the Phillies should have a much better guage on his future role on the team. </p>
<p>The last prospect the Phillies received is J.C. Ramirez, who reportedly has plus-stuff, but so far has not gotten the results to place him as a top level prospect. At 21 as well, he still has time to turn it around, but he is most assuredly a ways away. </p>
<p>On the positive, the Phillies did retain Domonic Brown, the player they have pegged as their top positional prospect and the one piece they were unwilling to give away. Brown is further away from the big leagues than Michael Taylor, but with the Phillies returning three All-star outfielders and having Ben Francisco in the fold as a legitimate 4th outfielder, that may be a good thing. Most scouts believe that Brown has a higher upside than Taylor, and the Phillies don&#8217;t have an immediate need for an outfielder unless Jayson Werth leaves, which is at least a year away. </p>
<p>The key, in the end, was Kyle Drabek. Drabek was the piece the Blue Jays wanted during the season, and the one the Phillies were reluctant to give away. The reality that Lee was going to test free agency, along with the ability to get Halladay signed long term, apparently was enough for the Phillies to reconsider. Drabek come back from Tommy John surgery on fire last year, and his loss is the one most likely to sting in coming years. </p>
<p>The inability to retain Lee and form a monster of a rotation is a little disappointing, and could have potentially been avoided. If the Phillies had been able to clear (or non-tender) Blanton and Chad Durbin, it may have been a reality even with the Jammie Moyer mistake from the previous offseason. Had they been able to clear the salary to do so under their self-imposed cap, I would have much rather gone into 2010 with Halladay, Lee and Hamels, and let Lee walk in free agency and receive the compensatory picks in exchange. Once you get past that and realize that they weren&#8217;t going to be able to do that, the Phillies did end up with one of the top three best pitchers in baseball, locked into a below market value contract for the next four years, and received enough talent back in the Lee-to-Seattle trade to arguably make up for the talent they gave up to Cleveland to get Lee last year. The trio of Halladay, Hamels, and last year&#8217;s NL Rookie of the Year runner-up J.A. Happ should form a starting rotation that can compete with anyone for the next few years, and the nucleus of the team, if held together, should be in their prime during the duration of Halladay&#8217;s contract. This move comes with potential risks, not only because of the talent they gave up but perhaps more importantly the financial difficulties this trade has potentially made worse. Even so, if the Phillies are able to keep this nucleus together, this trade only increases their odds of contending for another World Championship. </p>
<p><strong>Grade for Phillies: B+ </strong></p>
<p>Seattle&#8217;s addition of Cliff Lee for relative peanuts will always be viewed as a great acquisition, even if it is only for one season. Along with the addition Chone Figgins, as well as the turbulent offseason the Angels have gone through, it may be enough to catapult the Mariners into serious AL West contention, and if it does that the Mariners will come away runaway winners. The combination of Lee and Felix Hernandez at the top of Seattle&#8217;s rotation is as good as anyone in the league, and should keep them in a lot of ballgames. Whether their anemic offense (last in the AL in runs per game last year) can improve enough to make them serious playoff contenders is the question. Figgins over an injured (and ineffective when he did play) Beltre should help stabilize things somewhat. </p>
<p><strong>Grade for Mariners: A- </strong></p>
<p>Toronto was asking for Brown, Taylor, and Drabek/Happ last year at the deadline. They ended up getting two from that grouping, including the Phillies best pitching prospect and two of their three best positional prospects, despite the fact that the Halladay could contribute to one less playoff run before hitting free agency and had a short list teams he would approve a trade to. Because of that, this trade has to be a success, even if the result had more to do with Halladay&#8217;s willingness to negotiate a long term deal than anything Toronto directly did to increase his value between the trade deadline and now. Drabek is the centerpiece of the deal, and while he&#8217;s not a sure thing (no pitcher coming back from Tommy John surgery is, particularly a minor leaguer who hasn&#8217;t pitched above AA), he has looked very good since coming back from injury and is sure to jump way up in minor league rankings. There&#8217;s an outside chance both could hit the big leagues next year, moreso for Taylor than Drabek, and the Blue Jays should have a fairly high chance of seeing productivity from both of them at some point in the future. D&#8217;Arnaud is a viable catching prospect, albeit one a few years away. The report is the Blue Jays may flip Taylor for Brett Wallace of the Athletics, a very highly rated third baseman acquired in the Matt Holliday trade. That may not be the level of talent some Blue Jays fans had hoped for, but considering their loss of leverage in negotiations the Blue Jays would see as Halladay approached free agency was probably about as good as they could have hoped for. Were they better off accepting some of the opposing offers received at the trade deadline last year? That&#8217;s going to be the big question gnawing at Blue Jays fans in years to come. </p>
<p><strong>Grade for Blue Jays: B </strong></p>
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		<title>Phillies begin title defense</title>
		<link>http://blog.derekbodner.com/2009/10/07/phillies-begin-title-defense/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=phillies-begin-title-defense</link>
		<comments>http://blog.derekbodner.com/2009/10/07/phillies-begin-title-defense/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Oct 2009 17:39:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Derek Bodner</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RealGM]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.derekbodner.com/?p=287</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Originally posted at baseball.realgm.com The real season starts now. After furious rallies to make the playoffs in each of the last two years (one of which was accomplished in historic fashion), the Phillies have found themselves in unfamiliar territory. Following a sweep of the Marlins after the All-Star break and the mid-season acquisition of the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Originally posted at <a href="http://baseball.realgm.com/src_teamarticle/588/20091007/phillies_begin_title_defense/" target=new>baseball.realgm.com</a><br />
The real season starts now.<br />
<span id="more-287"></span><br />
After furious rallies to make the playoffs in each of the last two years (one of which was accomplished in historic fashion), the Phillies have found themselves in unfamiliar territory. Following a sweep of the Marlins after the All-Star break and the mid-season acquisition of the reigning AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee, winning the NL East has been expected. </p>
<p>Outside of a late-season run by the Braves, the Phillies lead has remained consistent. Meanwhile, they have been playing uninspired baseball for the last month. They entered the playoffs on a tear the last two years, so can they flip the switch? </p>
<p>The Phillies are tops in the NL in runs scored and home runs. They also have the fifth best ERA in baseball since the All-Star break, a combination that usually brings postseason success. So why the concern? How about a 17-16 record since the beginning of September, inconsistent pitching from the entire starting staff, injuries to prominent relievers, an absolutely terrifying closer situation and a month-long slump from Chase Utley. </p>
<p>Despite having a more talented starting rotation than in year&#8217;s past, it&#8217;s a group that&#8217;s not pitching at the top of their game. Cole Hamels (last year&#8217;s World Series MVP) and Lee (last year&#8217;s AL Cy Young winner) are both running through bouts of inconsistency, showing equal flashes of brilliance and struggle. The worry of having tired arms is real, with Hamels leading the league in innings pitched last year and Lee pitching the most innings in his career for the second year in a row. </p>
<p>Combine that with Joe Blanton, the model of consistency in June, July and August, having been bombed in three of his last five starts and Pedro Martinez struggling with a neck injury and the Phillies are presented with an extremely talented, but combustible, starting rotation. </p>
<p>The struggles in the ninth inning have been well-documented, and are no closer to resolution. To make matters worse, the bullpen has had some of it&#8217;s depth depleted due to injury, with prominent relievers J.C. Romero and Chan Ho Park not in Charlie Manuel&#8217;s arsenal. </p>
<p>Perhaps the most worrisome is Utley&#8217;s collapse and what it means to the offense. After hitting .313 with 20 home runs and a 1.004 OPS before the break, Utley has struggled mightily of late, hitting only .204 in September. This (along with Shane Victorino&#8217;s struggles) has led to an inconsistent offense that could be problematic, especially if the starting pitching isn&#8217;t on the top of their game. </p>
<p>Still, this is clearly a talented team, and one that if their healthy components return to top form is going to be a tough out for anyone in either league. But, at this point, fans are riding more on hope than confidence. How much of the team&#8217;s struggles and inconsistency were the case of not being challenged? Can the team flip the switch and revert to form? I&#8217;d rather be confident than hopeful. </p>
<p>All that being said, the Rockies may be the best draw for the Phillies in the first round. That may sound odd, considering the Rockies are the only NL playoff team that didn&#8217;t go limping into the playoffs, but Philadelphia matches up favorably with Colorado&#8217;s left-handed heavy lineup and right-handed heavy starting rotation. The Rockies produce only a .765 OPS against lefties, and the home-road split is perhaps more troublesome, producing only a .719 OPS on the road. </p>
<p>Overall, the Phillies have a solid chance of advancing past the first round, but if they want to have a legitimate shot at repeating a host of questions need to be answered. </p>
<p>The test starts Wednesday</p>
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		<title>Loyal to a fault</title>
		<link>http://blog.derekbodner.com/2009/09/14/loyal-to-a-fault/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=loyal-to-a-fault</link>
		<comments>http://blog.derekbodner.com/2009/09/14/loyal-to-a-fault/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Sep 2009 07:34:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Derek Bodner</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RealGM]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.derekbodner.com/?p=276</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Originally posted at baseball.realgm.com. Ask any of Charlie Manuel&#8217;s players, either past or present, to describe him and one of the first words you will hear is loyalty. Used in a positive light this will reflect the genuine affection his players feel for him, perhaps one of the reasons he is able to keep said [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Originally posted at <a href="http://baseball.realgm.com/src_teamarticle/587/20090914/loyal_to_a_fault/" target=new>baseball.realgm.com</a>.<br />
<span id="more-276"></span></p>
<p>Ask any of Charlie Manuel&#8217;s players, either past or present, to describe him and one of the first words you will hear is loyalty. </p>
<p>Used in a positive light this will reflect the genuine affection his players feel for him, perhaps one of the reasons he is able to keep said players performing as a cohesive unit. </p>
<p>After achieving perfection last season as one of the key components in helping the Manuel led Philadelphia Phillies to only the second World Championship in franchise history, it is easy to see why Manuel would have an extreme sense of loyalty to Brad Lidge. Add in the fact that Lidge is a high-character, hard-working player and you can&#8217;t help but root for him to succeed. </p>
<p>I recall back to August 18th against the Padres, the game in which Lidge suffered his first blown save as a Phillie. The standing ovation he received was one of the better displays of appreciation the fans would shower upon last years champions. </p>
<p>Nobody, not the fans in attendance, nor the ones watching on television, or Edward Murphy himself, could have predicted what would become of Brad Lidge&#8217;s 2009 season. As historically good his 2008 season was, his 2009 season has been equally epically poor. Looking through the annals of baseball you will be hard pressed to find a season as bad as Lidge&#8217;s this year, particularly from a prominent closer logging as many innings as Lidge has on a contending team. </p>
<p>0-7, 6.97 ERA, 1.80 WHIP. Opponents hitting a staggering .295 against him. He has 10 blown saves in 38 chances. </p>
<p>At some point, being loyal to one player becomes being disloyal to the other 24. Eventually, past success (even a season of perfection) is no longer a reliable predictor of future performance. Lidge followed up his tenth blown save of the season with another miserable outing, entering the 9th inning of a 5-3 game he gave up a single, hit a batter, threw a wild pitch, and gave up a walk in only 1/3 of an inning. </p>
<p>That seemed to be the tipping point for Manuel, who took Lidge out and brought in Ryan Madson to get the final two outs. Madson would go to record saves in his next two opportunities before giving up 2 runs on 3 hits in a 10-9 loss to the Mets on Saturday afternoon. </p>
<p>Perhaps prompted by Madson&#8217;s bad outing, or perhaps because Madson had been seeing a lot of innings recently, Lidge got another opportunity to save a game on Sunday. This time he was &#8220;successful&#8221; as he recorded the save allowing 2 runs in one inning of a 5-4 win. Which brings us back to square one and the uncertainty of knowing who will be working the 9th inning from game-to-game. </p>
<p>There was more to Manuel&#8217;s resistance to change than just loyalty. Fresh off of an extension he received during the course of last season, there has to be some concern that demoting Lidge for the remainder of the season could damage his psyche, putting perhaps more than just the remainder of this season in doubt. Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it, and demoting Lidge during his struggles in Houston didn&#8217;t exactly fare well for the Astros. </p>
<p>Furthermore, Charlie Manuel simply isn&#8217;t presented with an abundance of quality options. There are many candidates, all of whom provide a great deal of risk and uncertainty. The best option of the group is a healthy, confident and effective Brad Lidge. </p>
<p>Madson, Plan B, has himself blown 6 saves in 14 opportunities, which includes time he spent filling in as the closer when Lidge was injured back in June as well as the recent opportunities after Lidge&#8217;s temporary demotion. Establishing himself as one of the best set-up men in baseball with a fastball that can reach the upper 90&#8242;s with good movement, Madson&#8217;s 9th inning struggles have been perplexing, but real. Having given up only 2 home runs in 166 at-bats in the 8th inning, Madson has been victimized by 5 home runs in less than half the number of at-bats in the 9th. Despite being tied for 3rd in the National League in blown saves at 6, Madson remains the frontrunner for the closing position should Lidge continue to falter. </p>
<p>Brett Myers is a name that has been floated around, particularly since he will be used as a reliever for the remainder of the season after suffering a torn labrum in his hip back in May, and also because he has closer experience in the past. This would require Manuel to trust the closer&#8217;s role heading into the playoffs to a player who is largely unknown, having logged only 4 2/3 innings since returning from a major injury. The 3 earned runs he gave up on Saturday against the Mets in only a third of an inning won&#8217;t help his chances of being given the responsibility, at least not initially. If Myers becomes lights out in the bullpen over the next few weeks, and Madson and Lidge continue to struggle, Myers could become an option. </p>
<p>Doing the math, the Phillies are going to have a tough decision to make on their starting rotation come playoff time. Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton are virtual guarantees to be in the starting rotation, which means either J.A. Happ (10-4 with a 2.77 ERA) or Pedro Martinez (5-0, 2.87) is going to be the odd man out. Could Pedro step in and be a steadying force in the 9th inning? He has come out of the bullpen in the playoffs in the past, but his starts so far this year paint a troubling picture. Entering last night&#8217;s masterpiece against the Mets, Pedro had a 7.50 ERA with opponents hitting .370 against him in the first inning. While he has been able to overcome a slow start as a starting pitcher, he would not be afforded the same luxury in a closing role. </p>
<p>That leaves Happ, the rookie who could potentially be left out of the postseason starting rotation in favor of the more experienced Martinez. Lacking a bona-fide, dominant out pitch, Happ has not been nearly as effective as a reliever as he has a starter. For his career he has a 3.94 ERA out of the bullpen (compared with a 2.95 ERA as a starter). He was effective this year out of the pen (2.49 ERA), albeit in limited time. Having never closed before in his professional life, if the Phillies were looking to go this route they would seemingly have to experiment with the idea soon to gauge whether it has any legs, a situation made even more tricky based on the fact that Happ is currently nursing a strained oblique.</p>
<p>After not losing a game in which they entered the 9th inning with a lead during the entire 2008 season, the Phillies have blown 21 saves so far this year. What was the strength of the World Championship team appears that it could be this years Achilles heal. Brad Lidge should have already run out of chances, and cannot be relied on this year. He should only get the job back in the event all other options have been exhausted and have proven they cannot perform the role. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, his teammates seem eager to oblige. The<br />
Phillies don&#8217;t have a solid answer to their 9th inning demons, which could ultimately be the flaw that prevents them from duplicating their October success. </p>
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		<title>It&#8217;s Nice To Be Buyers</title>
		<link>http://blog.derekbodner.com/2009/08/04/its-nice-to-be-buyers/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=its-nice-to-be-buyers</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Aug 2009 15:22:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Derek Bodner</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RealGM]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.derekbodner.com/?p=249</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Originally posted at RealGM.com. The Phillies been on the other end of the trade deadline spectrum. Philadelphia fans watched in disbelief as their ace got traded for Vicente Padilla, Travis Lee and Omar Daal. They&#8217;ve seen players demand trades, and players shed for salary purposes. They&#8217;ve seen the Phillies assume the role of reluctant buyers, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Originally posted at <a href="http://baseball.realgm.com/src_teamarticle/582/20090804/its_nice_to_be_buyers/" target=new>RealGM.com</a>.</p>
<p><span id="more-249"></span></p>
<p>The Phillies been on the other end of the trade deadline spectrum.</p>
<p>Philadelphia fans watched in disbelief as their ace got traded for Vicente Padilla, Travis Lee and Omar Daal. They&#8217;ve seen players demand trades, and players shed for salary purposes. They&#8217;ve seen the Phillies assume the role of reluctant buyers, making &#8220;huge&#8221; trade deadline acquisitions like Turk Wendell. So,please excuse Phillies fans if they&#8217;re not exactly sure how to react to the addition of Cliff Lee.</p>
<p>Sure, Lee is not Roy Halladay, and after spending the better part of a month talking about how great of an addition the right-hander from Toronto would have made to the Phillies&#8217; staff, it&#8217;s easy to overlook how great of a move adding Cliff Lee is. The trade is an unqualified success, allowing the Phillies to improve their chances of immediate success while keeping the farm system ripe with young, cheap talent ready to contribute.</p>
<p>I liked Jason Knapp, but the kid is just 18 years old and currently on the disabled list. He&#8217;s years, and many good breaks, away from contributing at the major league level. Carrasco, Donald and Marson were highly thought of heading into the season, but all have stumbled to varying degrees this year.</p>
<p>None of the four traded players would likely be listed as a top-five prospect in the organization right now. If you can get the reigning American League Cy Young winner without giving up any player currently on your major league roster and without trading any of your top-five prospects, that&#8217;s a trade you have to make.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not only the talent level which they traded, but also the talent they didn&#8217;t trade that makes this deal so much of a slam dunk. The top prospects the Blue Jays were asking for are either currently producing at the big league level or close to it. J.A. Happ is making a case for Rookie of the Year, while Kyle Drabek (promoted to AA Reading at the beginning of June), Taylor (promoted to AAA a few weeks ago), and Dominic Brown (promoted to AA a few days ago) are moving up the ladder.</p>
<p>If the goal of trading for Halladay was to try to win the next two Octobers, losing three out of Happ, Taylor, Brown and Drabek would have been costly. That&#8217;s not necessarily just production in 2012 you&#8217;re risking, but also in the next fourteen months.</p>
<p>Lee may not give you a season like 2008 again, but he has firmly established himself as a top-of-the-rotation starter.</p>
<p>Looking at 2007 as an aberration, when he never fully recovered from a groin strain that caused him to start the year on the disabled list, he has been getting progressively better throughout his career. His HR/9, BB/9 and strikeouts per walk show 2008 was not a fluke, and that Lee is a significantly better pitcher than he was in 2005 and 2006.</p>
<p>One concern has been Lee&#8217;s moving away from Cleveland&#8217;s Progressive Field, generally recognized as a historically pitcher-friendly park. This concern is mostly quelled by his outstanding numbers away from home. In 12 road starts this year, Lee has a 3.03 ERA and opponents actually have both a higher on-base percentage and slugging percentage against him at home than on the road. Similarly, Lee gave up fewer home runs per nine innings and a lower slugging percentage on the road than at home last year. Expect his numbers to carry over, especially considering the advantage he should gain in switching leagues.</p>
<p>The Phillies made a trade for October, a deal with very little risk and very large upside. With a seven-game lead in the division, the front office could have gotten frustrated with the Halladay negotiations and justifiably made the argument that they could compete with the roster they had. Instead, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. made a tremendous acquisition with very little negative effect on the long-term health of the farm system.</p>
<p>Had the Phillies not spent the last few weeks salivating over Doc Halladay, there would be nary a naysayer to this deal.</p>
<p>Enjoy watching Cliff Lee in October, and be happy the Phils aren&#8217;t on the other end of this type of deal. </p>
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		<title>Been a few years since we saw this&#8230;.</title>
		<link>http://blog.derekbodner.com/2009/07/21/been-a-few-years-since-we-saw-this/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=been-a-few-years-since-we-saw-this</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Jul 2009 04:14:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Derek Bodner</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Phillies]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.derekbodner.com/?p=244</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[18 years, actually.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>18 years, actually.</p>
<p><img src="http://files.derekbodner.com/10inarow.png" alt="10 in a row..." /></p>
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		<title>World Series Trophy</title>
		<link>http://blog.derekbodner.com/2008/12/14/world-series-trophy/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=world-series-trophy</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 14 Dec 2008 17:47:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Derek Bodner</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Photography]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sports]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.derekbodner.com/?p=160</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://files.derekbodner.com/photos/2008-12-14_Trophy/480/7294-trophy.jpg" alt="with trophy" /></p>
<p><img src="http://files.derekbodner.com/photos/2008-12-14_Trophy/480/7298-mitch_elyssa.jpg" alt="elyssa and mitch williams" /></p>
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		<title>This One&#8217;s For The Fans</title>
		<link>http://blog.derekbodner.com/2008/11/03/this-ones-for-the-fans/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=this-ones-for-the-fans</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Nov 2008 15:43:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Derek Bodner</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Published]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RealGM]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.derekbodner.com/2008/11/03/this-ones-for-the-fans/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Originally posted at RealGM.com. When the Phillies defeated the Rays in Game 5 of the World Series they did more than just win a championship. They became immortals. The Cubs have their little 100-year drought, but puh-lease. Philadelphia fans didn&#8217;t weep for Chicagoans when the Bulls won championship after championship in the 1990&#8242;s, or when [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Originally posted at <a href=http://baseball.realgm.com/src_designatedwriter/44/20081103/this_ones_for_the_fans/ target=new>RealGM.com</a>.<br />
<span id="more-153"></span><br />
When the Phillies defeated the Rays in Game 5 of the World Series they did more than just win a championship.</p>
<p>They became immortals.</p>
<p>The Cubs have their little 100-year drought, but puh-lease. Philadelphia fans didn&#8217;t weep for Chicagoans when the Bulls won championship after championship in the 1990&#8242;s, or when the Bears routed the Patriots in 1985.</p>
<p>You see, it wasn&#8217;t just the pain that fans felt having gone 28 years without a baseball champion. Nor was it solely the pain that fans felt having only experienced one championship in the Phillies&#8217; first 125<br />
years of existence.</p>
<p>It was the culmination of 100 seasons that ended in disappointment across the four major sports.</p>
<p>Technically, it&#8217;s 98 seasons. But strike years in the NHL and MLB where a champion isn&#8217;t crowned certainly counts as a disappointment in my book.</p>
<p>Losing for 100 seasons is tough, but when there&#8217;s no other team in town providing a diversion? It&#8217;s heartbreaking.</p>
<p>There were lots of close calls. We continually looked towards next year, the infamous time that never arrives.</p>
<p>Philadelphia fans of this generation have been scarred, battered, beaten, and at times, disillusioned.</p>
<p>We have come to revere those teams who that come oh-so-close. These teams have been celebrated nearly as much for their personality as they have been for their winning.</p>
<p>We have long celebrated the 1993 Phillies. The group of characters, dubbed &#8220;Macho Row&#8221;, has long had a place in our hearts for the way they played the game, and their worst-to-first turnaround from the previous year provided genuine excitement. That team, ultimately came up two wins short of capturing a championship.</p>
<p>A back injury to Lenny Dykstra, knee troubles for Darren Daulton and a strike-shortened 1994<br />
season later, and the Phillies were back in their typical role, missing the playoffs every season until 2007.</p>
<p>In 2001, the little-guy-who-could made us believe, if only briefly. The Allen Iverson-led Philadelphia 76ers burst out the gate to a 10-0 start on their way to an NBA Finals appearance. After taking a stunning 1-0 lead against the heavily-favored Lakers in Los Angeles, they lost the next four games in route to another L.A. championship.</p>
<p>For years, Philadelphia fans have been idolizing underdog teams without the requisite talent to win a championship, who have captured our hearts and taken us on great, but unfinished, rides.</p>
<p>This time, our time has come. This time, Philadelphia had legitimate championship-level talent.</p>
<p>This time, Blaine Bishop tackles Joe Jurevicius. Eric Lindros doesn&#8217;t suffer a concussion. Jim Fregosi doesn&#8217;t send his closer out with a dead arm to serve up a meatball to Joe Carter. San Antonio doesn&#8217;t leapfrog the Sixers in the lottery. This time, we get Tim Duncan, not Tim Thomas or Keith Van Horn.</p>
<p>This time, the baseball gods were on our side.</p>
<p>The curse of William Penn has long been blamed for Philadelphia&#8217;s title drought. It&#8217;s not that we believe in curses. Logically, we know it has been the mistakes of the front offices, a lack of talent, or sheer<br />
bad luck getting in the way of our hopes and dreams.</p>
<p>But, at some point, one can begin to feel cursed. At some point, you have to wonder whether you&#8217;ll actually ever witness a parade.</p>
<p>Every year, luck, along with a heavy dose of talent, is required to win a championship. Certainly, the Phillies skated through the season largely injury-free, most importantly to their starting rotation. But luck does not make a champion. It&#8217;s still required that you capitalize on that luck, and that takes talent.</p>
<p>Brett Myers, who produced six base hits in the last three years, drew a two out walk to extend an inning against Milwaukee&#8217;s CC Sabathia in Game 2 of the NLDS. That is certainly not something you come to expect.</p>
<p>But as great of a break as that was, it doesn&#8217;t plate a run without Shane Victorino&#8217;s grand slam two batters later.</p>
<p>Luck, effort and talent. A winning recipe. A combination no other team has been able to put together in a combined 100 seasons in this city.</p>
<p>This win was certainly tremendous for the players.</p>
<p>For Jamie Moyer, who finally won a championship in his 22nd big league season, while playing for the team he grew up rooting for.</p>
<p>For Chris Coste, the 33-year-old rookie who never let his dream die.</p>
<p>For Myers, and his chance at redemption. And Jason Werth, who contemplated leaving the game after recurring wrist injuries.</p>
<p>Certainly, the win was also for the bright homegrown stars that have transformed the Phillies into contenders. Jimmy Rollins and Pat Burrell. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels.</p>
<p>But, most importantly, this win was for the fans. The citizens of Philadelphia who have come so close, only to end up in agonizing defeat.</p>
<p>The fans who live, eat, and sleep Philadelphia sports, only to be shut out from a parade down Broad Street year-after-year.</p>
<p>This win was for the 35-year-old fan who was too young to remember what this feels like. It was also for the 25-year-old fan who wasn&#8217;t yet born the last time a championship parade was held here.</p>
<p>Entire generations of die-hard fans with no concept of witnessing greatness. Up until this point, fans who had never witnessed the pure ecstasy of winning a championship.</p>
<p>Even if only temporary, on that day everything in the world was picture perfect. Everyone in the city was your friend. On Friday afternoon, fans gathered along Broad Street with two million of their best friends to celebrate a feeling they had forgotten, and some had never known. During these troubled economic times, these hard-working fans got the diversion they needed from their everyday life.</p>
<p>They witnessed what it was like to be a champion. And in this city, that has made this group of Phillies immortal. </p>
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		<title>World Series Parade Pictures</title>
		<link>http://blog.derekbodner.com/2008/11/01/world-series-parade-pictures/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=world-series-parade-pictures</link>
		<comments>http://blog.derekbodner.com/2008/11/01/world-series-parade-pictures/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Nov 2008 17:02:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Derek Bodner</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Photography]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sports]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.derekbodner.com/2008/11/01/world-series-parade-pictures/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Some pictures I took from the parade: (more here ) Guy on stilts: Pat the Bat: L.A.: Hamels &#038; Myers on the float: Crowd after the floats went by: Harry the K: Group with WS Trophy: The flag: Rollins Speaking: Victorino holding the WS trophy: Vic with trophy again: Some of the signs: This one [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Some pictures I took from the parade:<br />
(more <a href=http://photos.derekbodner.com/view/Events/Sports/2008-WS-Parade/ target=new>here</a> )<br />
<b>Guy on stilts</b>:<br />
<img src="http://files.derekbodner.com/photos/2008-WS-Parade/small/6407-stilts.jpg" width=480 height=421 alt="" /></p>
<p><b>Pat the Bat</b>:<br />
<img src="http://files.derekbodner.com/photos/2008-WS-Parade/small/6444-burrell.jpg" width=480 height=317 alt="" /></p>
<p><b>L.A.</b>:<br />
<img src="http://files.derekbodner.com/photos/2008-WS-Parade/small/6471-la.jpg" width=480 height=376 alt="" /></p>
<p><b>Hamels &#038; Myers on the float</b>:<br />
<img src="http://files.derekbodner.com/photos/2008-WS-Parade/small/6541-hamels_myers.jpg" width=480 height=350 alt="" /></p>
<p><b>Crowd after the floats went by</b>:<br />
<img src=http://files.derekbodner.com/photos/2008-WS-Parade/small/6617-crowd.jpg target=new/ width=480 height=320 /></p>
<p><b>Harry the K</b>:<br />
<img src=http://files.derekbodner.com/photos/2008-WS-Parade/small/6664-phanatic_kalas.jpg target=new/ width=480 height=435 /></p>
<p><b>Group with WS Trophy</b>:<br />
<img src=http://files.derekbodner.com/photos/2008-WS-Parade/small/6754-trophy.jpg target=new/ width=480 height=249 /></p>
<p><b>The flag</b>:<br />
<img src=http://files.derekbodner.com/photos/2008-WS-Parade/small/6774-flag.jpg target=new/ width=480 height=368 /></p>
<p><b>Rollins Speaking</b>:<br />
<img src=http://files.derekbodner.com/photos/2008-WS-Parade/small/6842-rollins.jpg target=new/ width=480 height=315 /></p>
<p><b>Victorino holding the WS trophy</b>:<br />
<img src=http://files.derekbodner.com/photos/2008-WS-Parade/small/6858-trophy.jpg target=new/ width=480 height=393 /></p>
<p><b>Vic with trophy again</b>:<br />
<img src=http://files.derekbodner.com/photos/2008-WS-Parade/small/6906-trophy.jpg target=new/ width=480 height=377 /></p>
<p><b>Some of the signs</b>:<br />
<img src=http://files.derekbodner.com/photos/2008-WS-Parade/small/6642-rain_on_parade_sign.jpg target=new/ width=480 height=410 /></p>
<p><img src=http://files.derekbodner.com/photos/2008-WS-Parade/small/6643_real_swing_state_sign.jpg target=new/ width=480 height=324 /></p>
<p>This one didn&#8217;t come out, which upset me.  But I wanted to post it because it was funny (even if out of focus).  The police officer was taking a picture of the trophy:<br />
<img src=http://files.derekbodner.com/photos/2008-WS-Parade/small/6863-policer_officer_camera.jpg target=new/ width=480 height=446 /></p>
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		<title>On the plus side</title>
		<link>http://blog.derekbodner.com/2008/10/28/on-the-plus-side/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=on-the-plus-side</link>
		<comments>http://blog.derekbodner.com/2008/10/28/on-the-plus-side/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Oct 2008 05:38:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Derek Bodner</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sports]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.derekbodner.com/2008/10/28/on-the-plus-side/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[While I would have preferred the Phillies to end the World Series last night, I did get some benefit out of it. I&#8217;m a partial season ticket holder, and bought my playoff tickets season ticket holders get the opportunity of getting. You get whatever games they give you, and my game was game 3. Turns [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>While I would have preferred the Phillies to end the World Series last night, I did get some benefit out of it.  I&#8217;m a partial season ticket holder, and bought my playoff tickets season ticket holders get the opportunity of getting.  You get whatever games they give you, and my game was game 3.</p>
<p>Turns out I had a prior commitment on October 25th, the night of game 3.  Not being able to afford StubHub tickets, I resigned myself to not missing out on a World Series, something I had never attended.</p>
<p>When the game was announced that it was going to be resumed, I immediately hustled down to Citizens Bank Park.  I found 4 people who were coming up from Atlanta and had to fly back down tonight.  They weren&#8217;t going to be able to make the final 3.5 innings tomorrow (or Wednesday), and I got tickets on the cheap.</p>
<p>Sure, it&#8217;s not the full game, but it&#8217;s the most important part.  Tomorrow (or whenever), the Phillies will have the opportunity of closing out Philadelphia&#8217;s first championship in 25 years at home.  And if that happens, I&#8217;ll be there for the final pitch.  And I got it for below face value.</p>
<p>I just hope it isn&#8217;t Wednesday, as I have tickets to Sixers opening night against the Raptors.</p>
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		<title>Black cloud hangs over world series</title>
		<link>http://blog.derekbodner.com/2008/10/28/black-cloud-hangs-over-world-series/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=black-cloud-hangs-over-world-series</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Oct 2008 05:16:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Derek Bodner</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.derekbodner.com/2008/10/28/black-cloud-hangs-over-world-series/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The missed calls and inconsistent strike zone caused enough controversy in the 2008 World Series. It was bad enough when fans could argue that Jimmy Rollins was, in fact, hit by that pitch. Or that Jamie Moyer&#8217;s flip to Ryan Howard did get there in time. Or that Evan Longoria did make contact with Rollins [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The missed calls and inconsistent strike zone caused enough controversy in the 2008 World Series.  It was bad enough when fans could argue that Jimmy Rollins was, in fact, hit by that pitch.  Or that Jamie Moyer&#8217;s flip to Ryan Howard did get there in time.  Or that Evan Longoria did make contact with Rollins before he got back to 3rd base.</p>
<p>Now we add in the unpredictability of Mother Nature, and the even more unpredictable Bud Selig, and you come up with a grand mess worse than the Citizens Bank Park infield.</p>
<p>Watching the game, it became clear the umpires were not going to call the game with the Phillies up 2-1, as if the game was not able to resume, that could have signaled Mother Nature prematurely ending the World Series in a Phillies win.  The umpires waited, the Rays tied the game, and the game was immediately postponed.</p>
<p>Prior to 2007, if the visiting team scores runs in the top of an inning, and the home team does not get to finish out the bottom half of the inning, and the game has met the conditions to become official, the score is reverted back to the end of the last full inning in the event a game is canceled, which would have resulted in a Phillies victory.  Now, a tie game, even one mid-inning, can be resumed at a later date.</p>
<p>After the game, Selig stated they would have postponed the game even if the Rays were trailing.</p>
<p>&#8220;We&#8217;d have sat here,&#8221; Selig said. &#8220;The game would have been in a rain delay until the weather conditions allowed us to continue. And that could have been 24 hours or 48 hours or whenever.&#8221; </p>
<p>Not only is that interesting because it was readily evident the umpires became much more receptive to delaying the game once the score became tied, but also because it is not allowed by <a href=http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/official_info/official_rules/start_end_4.jsp target=new>Major League Baseball rules</a> (Section 4.12).  </p>
<p>&#8220;I have to use my judgment here,&#8221; Selig said. &#8220;This is not a way to end the World Series.&#8221;</p>
<p>The game, and thus World Series, absolutely should not have ended prematurely due to weather, that is likely something everyone can agree with Selig on.  It&#8217;s hard to fathom even title starved Philadelphia fans wanting to win in that manner.  </p>
<p>That being said, this is something that needs to be in the rulebooks.  We all agree that World Series games should not end due to weather, so why not make it official that all World Series games will play the full nine innings, regardless of whether they are resumed from a tie game or not, half inning or full?  </p>
<p>Why try to force a half inning on a field that clearly was not playable, when it became obvious the game was not capable of being finished?</p>
<p>Why does it feel like the commissioner is making up the rules as he goes?</p>
<p>Ultimately, the remainder of game 5 will be played in Philadelphia, some night.  We&#8217;re just not sure exactly when.  Until then, the Rays will have to find new shelter for the night, as the team did not have reservations, and the hotel they were staying at was fully booked.</p>
<p>Hard to imagine things could get any stranger.</p>
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